We've all seen them, those unreasonably large college football pointspreads. Maybe
USC is favored by 36 over some joke of a team. Or Florida is favored by 29 over
Florida A&M. These games jump off the page right away just for the sheer size of
the spread.
And yeah they almost make you giggle because they're such a joke, but what about
actually betting on these games where spreads can at times attain 40 points or more?
Should you try to get down on a game with a spread this large?
The short answer is no, but there are a number of reasons why. First of all, when
you're talking about spreads of this amount that means you're also talking about some
Very awful teams. And we've all been there, but no one likes to have to root in a
terrible team. One more sack allowed, an extra turnover, an additional missed tackle, it's
like the movie 'Groundhog Day,' error after blunder.
Another trouble is there's no actual guide to pursue. How can you determine if
the team getting pounded will keep on working, playing tough to the final gun goes
off, and trying to get that score that makes the number?
Now with the BCS involved, some schools will demonstrate no understanding because they're trying to get those all- mighty points in the polls. You would believe that would increase
even more later on in the season, right? Well even that speculation isn't a lock based
on earlier performances.
And that's my final and possibly most imperative point. The statistical facts
doesn't validate taking either side in these lopsided games. Looking at the data we
could only find one occurrence where teams covered with a winning percentage over 53%.
With a break-even point of 52.7%, that's hardly sufficient to inspire assurance.
My suggestion: stay away from the Giant NCAA Pointspread!
All the best,
Rich Allen - aka Sports Betting Professor
