Oklahoma - Forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) have called for an El Niño watch in their latest issued ENSO Diagnostic Discussion.
The return of El Niño - an oceanic phenomenon that occurs every two to seven years and causes worldwide changes in climate patterns - should help keep winter temperatures in Florida below normal while increasing the chances for severe storms, including tornadoes.
According to StormChase.com's lead forecaster Brian Barnes, El Niño made its last appearance in 2002-03.
"There was a significant tornado outbreak across southern Florida on March 27, 2003 with eight confirmed tornadoes in the Miami County Warning Area." Barnes Said.
One of those tornadoes, which touched down initially near East Hialeah was credited with a fatality when debris was lofted and pierced the walls of a family home.
Barnes says that based on the historical data that during periods of El Niño, certain climate driven events are amplified across southern Florida and that events such as winter storms and severe weather could be more active than usual, and temperatures could be below normal.
However, he also pointed out that while this seems to be the usual pattern during El Niño, the science itself still has uncertainties and this does not mean that severe weather and tornadoes will necessarily occur, only that there is an increased chance.
"Climatology is basically about looking at what has happened historically based on a given set of conditions, it doesn't however mean that is what exactly will happen." Barnes said.
Barnes also operates a tornado chasing tour service in Tornado Alley and says his customers are pretty weather savvy.
"A lot of my regular customers have called and asked about an increased tornado potential during our 2010 storm chase season." Said Barnes. "During the last El Niño in 2003, we had a very strong storm season in May and June across Tornado Alley. There was a prolific tornado outbreak that started on May 4th and most of Tornado Alley experienced a higher frequency of tornadoes than was climatologically normal for the next several weeks. Most of June also had a higher frequency of tornadoes than normal as well."
Barnes stated that there is no reason why another higher than normal tornado season across Tornado Alley wouldn't be the case for 2010. "At this point and time, we can't rule it out."
