Not too long ago Pakistan was being given six months to implosion. Fears were being voiced about a Taliban onslaught on its capital Islamabad with grave consequences for its nukes. Some kind of social upheaval was being predicted by forces sympathetic to the Taliban. Pakistan was being called a failed state, or failing state or more kindly a ‘stressed state’. Not any more.
A determined military operation backed by political resolve, public and media support and coordinated with US/ISAF operations in Afghanistan has pushed the Taliban insurgents out of Swat, Mohmand and Bajaur---the northern part of FATA called Malakand. The Khyber has been secured and NATO logistics and Afghan trade flows without interruption. Further south the Bannu and DI Khan areas have been made safer and the noose is being tightened around the insurgent Taliban stronghold of South Waziristan. The insurgent leadership is either dead, dying, arrested or on the run with reports of in-fighting within the many groups. There is no talk of peace agreements---just the resolve to eliminate the threat that had challenged the writ of the state. A generally peaceful election has highlighted the centrality of Pakistan to the stability of Afghanistan and the strife that could result from a premature US/NATO pullout under their own domestic pressures.
The economy is showing the first signs of a possible recovery. There is no doubt that the reason is IMF recipes, record remittances from abroad and the support from the US. A ‘friends of Pakistan’ event is being held in Turkey and another is scheduled for New York late next month. Moody’s and Standard and Poor have moved Pakistan’s ratings up a notch. The President is in China specifically to invite Chinese investment into Pakistan. The US has pledged to help Pakistan with its energy and water problems. All this is happening without a long term strategic plan for recovery and stabilization. Such a plan if it should ever be made would include threat reduction, bilateral relations with neighbors, securing borders, internal security from extremists and criminals, response to social sector issues like health care, education, food and water security and above all it would stress capacity building for diplomacy, economic and financial reform, counter insurgency and governance. The plan could be for ten, twenty or thirty years but it has to be realistic with guarantees for continuity. Pakistan could then expect massive support from the world.
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