Challenges of Pandemic Influenzas
H1N1-specific vaccines. Adjuvants. Pfizer’s Tamiflu. GlaxoSmithKline’
The pharmaceutical response to a pandemic has many developmental and procedural tiers. These tiers include:
- Isolating the pathogenic virus;
-Developing in vitro diagnostic tests (ideally for point-of-care or near-patient use);
-Testing the effectiveness of existing treatments;
- Creating seed viruses for vaccine production (work carried out by WHO Collaborating Centres for Reference and Research on Influenza);
- Shipping seed viruses to companies with vaccine production facilities;
- Testing the vaccine’s ability to produce an immune response, and whether that response requires one or two injections;
- Producing enough high-quality vaccine to respond to the worldwide need.
The pharmaceutical industry has risen to the sudden challenge of swine flu, and has responded very well to both the panic and the demand. The gaps in treatment and production have been filled as fast as possible, and many companies claim to be on track to produce millions of doses of vaccine.
The biggest gaps in treatment are the inevitable limits on vaccine production, which might mean a shortfall for a few months, and the potentially prohibitive costs of treatments. Relenza and Tamiflu are currently too expensive for many developing nations, and Pfizer and GlaxoSmithKline have been under considerable pressure to permit generics of their patented drugs to be produced. If swine flu becomes more significantly deadly, countries and regulatory bodies may turn a blind eye to production of patent-infringing generics.
Swine Flu Vaccines: Will You Get the Jab?
It takes six months to develop an influenza vaccine. The WHO has stressed that such development cannot be performed any more quickly without severely compromising the integrity and safety of the vaccines. However, any quick search of the internet will show that people are simultaneously clamouring for a vaccine and are worried about its negative side effects.
Vaccines are the best way to prevent or limit the impact of many diseases. Human health as we know it relies upon vaccination. But vaccines are also fundamentally a matter of hedging bets: no pharmaceutical intervention is 100% effective or 100% free of side effects. Vaccines can prevent a flu virus from turning deadly for most of the population, but they will almost certainly have negative effects for some recipients. In 1976, a massive immunisation programme was instigated to combat a swine flu. Out of the 40 million people who received the vaccine, only 30 died from vaccine side effects.
In order for a disease to be prevented from spreading, 85% of the population needs to be immune. This is known as ‘herd immunity’. Creating herd immunity for swine flu will therefore require 85% of the population to be vaccinated against the disease. That equals over 5 billion people worldwide who would need vaccination. In an extensive vaccination programme, we will only know the numbers of people who died from a vaccine; in the best-case scenario we will never know how many would have died without the vaccine. Despite a small degree of risk, however, vaccines represent protection: without them, we can only wait and hope.
Need to Know More? Visiongain has a Range of Relevant Reports
The vaccines market was worth over $22bn in 2008, according to a visiongain report on the subject. What will the market be worth in 2015? In 2024? Visiongain predicts that the market for vaccines will increase at a compound annual growth rate of 13% between now and 2013. Our annual Vaccines Market report is currently being updated, and will soon be available with all the most up-to-date data, including information about swine flu vaccines. Visiongain can supply information on its wide range of market-based reports covering infection and other major facets of the global pharmaceutical sector.
The market for respiratory disease treatments reached over $55bn in 2008. Tamiflu generated sales of $500m in 2008, and experienced a spike in sales in early 2009 due to swine flu. What will the respiratory drugs market do in the future? Visiongain has reports that provide crucial information about the World Respiratory Diseases market.
What about generics? Generic Tamiflu could be produced without Pfizer’s approval if the swine flu – or any influenza situation – has an excessive mortality rate (according to WHO standards). Some countries – especially developing ones unable to afford branded Tamiflu – may produce the drug regardless of patent laws. The generics market generated revenues of $134bn in 2008, and a visiongain report expects sales to increase at a compound annual growth rate of 13% from 2007 through to 2013. Want to know what the market will do next? Contact visiongain for more information about World Generics Market reports.
Diagnosing disease is where it all begins. We only know swine flu is something different from ordinary flu because of diagnostic tests that can differentiate between influenza strains. In 2008, the market for influenza tests generated total revenues of $300m. Visiongain predicts that the market for influenza tests will increase at a compound annual growth rate of 10.8% from 2009 to 2014. What other diagnostic tests will sell the most? How will avian flu change the way the market behaves? Contact visiongain for more information on our in In Vitro Diagnostics Market reports to find out.
Editors notes:
About visiongain:
Visiongain is a London-based, global business information provider. Visiongain produces market reports and business conferences in the pharmaceutical, defence, and wireless telecoms sectors. Visiongain covers a wide range of healthcare markets in our detailed market- and industry-centred reports. We cover all major therapeutic areas, as well as biotechnology, in-vitro diagnostics and emerging markets. Our reports are highly analytical investigations of contemporary topics, with detailed sales forecasting, market share analyses, SWOT summaries, interviews with leaders in each field, and pipeline analyses.
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