Bahrain Govt. Moving Toward A More Pro-generic Drug Policy In Light Of Rising Prescription Prices

PR Log (Press Release) – Aug 03, 2009 – In Q309, BMI expects Bahrain's total drug market value to increase from US$115mn, in 2008, to US$118mn by 2013, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of only 0.52% in US dollar terms.

The proportion of GDP dedicated to pharmaceutical spending will reach 0.60% by the end of our forecast period. Per capita drug expenditure will be US$116.

The prescription drug market will rise from US$102mn in 2008 to US$106mn by 2013. Note that the Bahrain government is moving slowly toward a more pro-generic drug policy in light of rising prescription prices. The country imports most of its pharmaceuticals from France, the UK, Germany, Switzerland and the US. We believe it is highly likely that the foreign-derived medicines are patented as a result, mirroring the UAE – a lack of a proper or thorough regulatory process within Bahrain necessitates FDA- or EMEA-produced drugs as a quality control. This also leads to an unintentional preference for more expensive patented products.

Drug exports are unlikely to increase dramatically in the medium term. The small manufacturing sector is unlikely to be producing a diverse patented portfolio and therefore potential for expansion is limited without government or private investment. During Q309 it has become more apparent that the government is trying to shift perceptions that the Bahraini population can afford more expensive drugs.

We believe that the government is likely to enter more serious discussions on generic substitution and therefore this market will be ideal for off-patent drugmakers looking for a new export destination. Good trade relations with developed countries also place Bahrain in a favourable position for negotiation, and a change in import composition regarding the patent/generic ratios may invite competitive pricing in the patented drug sector by default. Our forecast indicates that generic medicines will reach a value of US$8mn by 2013, comprising 6.6% of the total drug market and only 7.5% of the total prescription market.

The over-the-counter (OTC) drug market is expected to undergo a modest decline during our forecast period, with compound annual growth only -1.31% through to 2013. The Bahraini population are slow to adopt a self-medicating approach, and with a slow rise in generic spending expected, we believe that patients prefer to see a doctor and get cheaper prescribed drugs than explore OTCs. We maintain our view that the consumer health segment is underexploited. Despite the small market size, there is huge potential for the OTC to experience positive growth. Clear retail policies and increasing the choice of OTCs may provide an avenue for increased sales.