The report of a new study entitled “Biofuels and Food Security” reviews the global status of biofuels development, policy regimes and support measures and quantifies the agro-ecological potential of first-and second-generation biofuels crops. It presents a comprehensive evaluation of the social, environmental and economic implications of biofuels development on transport fuel security, greenhouse gas emissions, agricultural prices, food security, land use change and sustainable agricultural development.
The main policy relevant research findings of the OFID – IIASA study include the following:
Food Security: At present about a billion people in the developing countries are chronically hungry. Implementing the current biofuels development targets in the developed and developing countries based on current first-generation technologies will put an additional 140 million people at risk of hunger and Africa and South Asia will account for over two-thirds of those most affected.
Energy Security: The world transport fuel consumption is projected to increase by over 60 percent by 2030 and current biofuels targets will result in a relatively small share of about 12 percent in the developed countries and 8 percent in the developing countries in 2030. Liquid biofuels are only one among many sources of renewable energy and their efficiency and societal value needs to be assessed vis-à-vis other current and future energy options in the context of comprehensive national and global energy strategies.
Climate Mitigation: Estimated global greenhouse gas emissions in 2006 amounted to 45 Gt in carbon dioxide equivalent, of which some 62 percent is energy related. The current biofuels development will not result in greenhouse gas savings until after 2030. Even for the period 2000-2050, estimated cumulative gains of 15 - 27 Gt carbon dioxide equivalent from biofuels need to be put in perspective to current annual greenhouse gas emissions of about 6 Gt carbon dioxide equivalent caused by the transport sector.
Deforestation and Biodiversity Risks: The 2020 biofuels feedstock production targets may result in deforestation of over 20 million additional hectares with the inherent consequences of substantial carbon emissions and loss of biodiversity. Incentive schemes aiming at avoidance of deforestation need to be negotiated in the context of post-Kyoto agreements on combating climate change.
The Way forward with Biofuels: There is substantial potential for the commercial production of second-generation biofuels feedstocks on about 700 million hectares of currently unprotected grassland and woodlands and of this, some 125 million hectares would be sufficient to meet current biofuels targets to 2030. The development of second generation biofuels offers opportunities to develop innovative and mutually beneficial private sector and local community partnerships that would combine biofuels production for the market with food production by and for the local community. Such partnerships would need to be well designed, monitored and legally binding to minimize social and economic risks of exploitation.
For more than thirty years, debates have raged over feeding cereals to livestock, in a world where over one-sixth of the population live with chronic hunger and debilitating poverty. There is a risk that in thirty years we will still be debating the fallacy of feeding cereals to cars. However, this time the situation is different. If we fail to deal adequately with the interrelated challenges of providing clean energy, ensuring food security and coping with climate change, the entire world’s population will be affected.
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OFID is the development finance institution established in January 1976 by Member States of OPEC (the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) to promote South-South cooperation by extending development assistance to other, non-OPEC developing countries. In keeping with its mandate, OFID focuses its resources on projects designed to help the poorest nations and the most vulnerable members of their societies.
IIASA is an international scientific institute that conducts research into the critical issues of global environmental, economic, technological, and social change that we face in the 21st century. Its findings provide valuable options to policy makers to shape the future of our changing world. IIASA is independent and funded by scientific institutions in Africa, the Americas, Asia and Europe