Is This Flu "pandemic" The Tipping Point Of A Natural Overpopulation Cull?

May 1, 2009 - PRLog -- According to the British press: "Up to 1.2 million people could be hospitalised and 750,000 killed if a flu pandemic sweeps the nation...This could result in the total healthcare contacts for influenza-like illness increasing from around 1 million during a 'normal' season up to 30 million...Up to 1.2 million could be hospitalised in Britain in event of pandemic."

The World Health Organization is expected to designate this outbreak as a full pandemic within days. But is this just sheer blind panic as the new virus sweeps the world. It is likely that no one really knows how it will mutate and evolve and the scenarios are being spread across media channels suggesting mild, with diarrhoea the biggest complaint, to worst-case scenarios.

One of the worst-case pandemic scenarios is of "catastrophic severity" which, according to the British press could result in the "complete or partial collapse of some or all hospital infrastructures" and point to "2,000 hospital admissions per 100,000 people — or 1.2 million people...and1,250 fatalities per 100,000 — or 750,000 people." The report went on to say that: "Over the entire period of a pandemic, up to 50% of the population may show clinical symptoms of influenza."

According to Margaret Chan, the WHO's director-general: "Pandemic virus is precarious, unpredictable, and will take us by surprise. There may be a possibility that the virus will die out and stop, and that would be the best for us. But it can turn the other way."

Keiji Fukuda, the WHO's acting assistant director-general, said that it was not yet clear whether swine flu would turn into a mild or severe pandemic, raising the possibility that the virus could have more serious effects as it continues to permeate new communities or as climate conditions change.

There have been three pandemic flu outbreaks in the last century in Spain, Asia and Hong Kong. In 1918, the Blue Death, a bird flu, killed an estimated 50 million people who died in the first outbreak, about two million in the second and between one and three million in the third.

Guan Yi, a microbiologist at the University of Hong Kong said that "In the 1918 pandemic, the first wave was mild, but by fall, the second wave killed many people. So whichever way this virus swings, we can't possibly know. At this point, chances are it will be mild, but we can’t rule out it will turn virulent. And even if it turns milder, it can still kill, depending on the kind of person it infects."

As the new swine flu strain spreads, following more than 1,000 cases in Mexico, it is tempting to imagine the worst. Now that a child from Mexico whose family brought him to the US for treatment, those fears appear to be amplified. However, in reality, the term "flu pandemic" simply means a new strain is infecting and spreading among people in several areas of the world at the same time. It can be mild, moderate, or severe.

Although it has happened three times before, one cannot help but ask if a certain tipping point of human overpopulation has been breached and is responsible for this new "pandemic".

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