The lack of resistance by the security forces at the Asean Summit was a telling one. Was this lack of security at such a crucial summit for the region merely built on naivety, incompetence and miscalculation by the Abhisit government or by manoeuvres and partisan divisions in the army and police?
Are they the same forces that stepped aside during the seizure of the airports last December? Expect more speculation here as a State of Emergency has been called and armoured carriers tentatively rolled out.
The military has also blocked the roads around Chitralada Palace Sunday afternoon after the declaration of the state of emergency. Hundreds of soliders and an armoured vehicle were deployed to provide security for Foreign Ministry. Dozens of commandoes were also deployed in front of Parliament on Thursday.
Both the seizure of Suvanabhumi airport by the yellow shirts last year and the storming of the Asean Summit by the red are seen by some as tantamount to acts of terrorism but the only side likely to be punished are the red-shirts. But, the current administration is not as "illegal" as the red-shirts claim, as once-loyal Thaksin coalition partners walked across the House giving the coalition to Abhisit.
The struggle has multiple dimensions but one of the dominant features has been a statist-liberal pact to politically engineer the emergence of a "true democracy". The current situation is one of a brutal attempt to return Thailand to some form of elite liberal-conservative hybrid democracy, not "true democracy" as Thaksin is calling for. Whether or not this can work has been the essence of Thailand's self-destruction.
Thaksin Shinawtra may well sit aggressively on the side of the liberal divide, wanting to return to the country, avoid his jail sentence, revoke the 2007 constitution and restore the TRT party with him as prime minister, but the statists resolve to block his every move. More importantly, to him at least, he wants to recover his sequestrated billions before it's too late.
But in the end, sadly, Abhisit's "Truth and Reconcilation"
The fallout from this is deep humiliation for the country, with possible House dissolution (how can Abhisit be seen fit to run the country now?) and talk of the military back in power. But most worrying is the escalating unemployment and poverty that is bound to ensue.
As in The Nation's commentary: "The damage to Thailand is incalculable. The damage to Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva is also irreparable...You may count the days of Abhisit Vejjajiva as prime minister now."
An Army spokesperson warned the public not to panic "if they happen to see the employ of army forces as the military will start employing their forces and send them to various places." He said the state of emergency allowed the officials to step up measures to deal with the protesters.
Who can save Thailand from 4/11 and itself now?
