By the time Barack Obama take his oath as 44th President of the United States on January 20th 2009, he will face an economy which is in the middle of a severe and prolonged recession, with a million lay-offs and an unemployment rate of between 7 and 8%.
On his list of things to do will be: Tax Policy, The Fiscal Deficit, Social Security, Medicare, Health Care Reform, Trade Policy, Critical Foreign Policy Challenges, Climate Change, Domestic Labor and Securing The Middle Class in the US.
In terms of US Trade Policy in Southern Africa:
The United States is now Southern Africa's largest trading partner and from this perspective the new administration in Washington could have important implications.
Governments do not trade but conclude the agreements which could foster and enhance trade.
What will be the position with respect to trade agreements between the United States and Southern Africa ? How could they improve under the Obama Administration and what would be required to make this happen?
Any speculation about the Obama Administration has to be seen in the context of the current financial crisis, and the concomitant global economic slowdown. There are also those that believe that protectionism may be on the rise.
The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) is in place and offers forty sub-Saharan African countries duty free and quota free access to the US market for about 6 700 tariff lines.
There is however still ample scope to improve access to the US market especially for agricultural products.
In addition, programs to support the development of supply side capacity of African countries related to infrastructure development, water and transport, can also enhance Africa's capacity to trade.
The Obama Administration should consider reopening negotiations with SACU (South African Customs Union) to conclude a free trade agreement.
Certain lessons can be learned from the failure of these negotiations two years ago and Washington could be more accommodating of specific needs in areas such as services.
We believe that SACU is a far more suitable configuration than the SADC EPA Group, (Southern African Development Community - Economic Partnership Agreement) and such negotiations could provide meaningful support to existing regional integration initiatives and ultimately benefit both the countries in Southern Africa and the United States.
