Throughout the 2007 college football season, media and fans alike cannot recall a more topsy-turvy season. In just week#1, No. 5 Michigan lost to unranked Division II Appalachian State and was booted out of the AP Top 25. In week#3, No. 11 UCLA not only lost to unranked Utah but also by a wide 44-6 margin. UCLA was also dropped from the AP25 rankings. And then came the curse of being ranked #2. University of South Florida, where I work, was ranked #2 at the end of Week 7 and lost to unranked Rutgers 30-27 in Week#8. This was the same week when four of the top ten AP poll teams lost their games.
Although everyone can see the anecdotal evidence of a topsy-turvy season, is it possible that the media and fans over exaggerated the topsy-turvyness. Were there other seasons that were more topsy-turvy than 2007 and we did not notice?
To answer this question scientifically, Professor Autar Kaw of the University of South Florida has developed a simple algorithm to quantify the topsy-turvyness from week to week and that of the season. The quantity is called the topsy-turvy factor (TT factor). The TT factor is calculated for each week (called Week TT factor); then the Week TT factors are used to calculate the Season TT factor.
Using the AP football rankings from the last six football seasons, Professor Kaw confirms quantitatively that 2007 has been a topsy-turvy season, but its topsy-turvyness is NOT too different from that of the 2003 season.
The TT factor for the 2007 season so far is 81, while the TT factor for 2003 season was slightly lower at 76. In both 2007 and 2003, 27% of the Week TT factors were 91 or more.
The method to find the Week TT Factor is based on comparing the AP poll rankings from the current week to that of the previous week. The Season TT factor is a weighted average of the Week TT factors. For more details, visit http://www.autarkaw.com/
If you'd like more information about this topic, please call 813-220-6703 or e-mail Professor Autar Kaw at autarkaw@yahoo.com.
