“Global Telecom Market Status and Forecast” reports that over the projected period to the end of 2011, growth is projected to slow to a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.2% and revenue is expected to increase by US$347 billion to reach almost US$1.9 trillion.
The slowing of the revenue growth will be caused by the declining value of the fixed services market in a number of countries, increasing saturation in some mobile and internet markets, and pressure on prices across all sectors.
The report shows that an increasing percentage of the world’s telecom revenue will be generated by mobile and internet services and it is predicted that mobile will surpass the fixed market, in terms of revenue, as early as the end of 2007.
Authors of the report say that by year-end 2006, the global aggregate number of fixed, mobile and Internet subscribers increased by 15.1% to over 4.4 billion and that this number should grow by a further 12.3% to 5.0 billion by the end of 2007.
Although fixed subscriber expansion is slowing, the total number of fixed, mobile and Internet subscribers should grow by a CAGR of 8.6% over the next 5 years to reach 6.7 billion. The increase in number of subscribers will mainly be driven by new broadband and mobile connections.
According to the authors of the report, mobile should remain one of the main drivers of growth in customer numbers over the next 5 years. They note that the mobile sector, which peaked in terms of expansion in 2004 and 2005 with growth rates of 25.2% and 25.6%, rose further to reach 2.69 billion customers in 2006, representing an increase of 23.7%. At that time, mobile penetration stood at 41.8%, a significant increase over 2005, when mobile penetration was 34.2%.
“Global Telecom Market Status and Forecast” confirms that broadband will continue to be the fastest growing telecom sector, with a forecast global CAGR of 14.0% over the next 5 years. The bulk of the broadband percentage growth will come from low broadband penetration regions such as Middle East and Africa (MEA), Latin America and Eastern Europe.
When analysing the global telecom market on a regional basis, Asia is the largest region by far and now represents 45.6%, 38.4%, 40.4% and 37.1% of the world’s fixed, mobile, internet and broadband subscribers respectively.
MEA will be the fastest growing region in all sectors, apart from Internet, with forecasted CAGRs of 4.7%, 18.7%, 13.8% and 34.0% in the fixed, mobile, Internet and broadband sectors respectively.
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