AccuWeather.com Chief Long-Range Forecaster Joe Bastardi issued an updated 2007-08 Winter Season Forecast today reiterating that all signs point to 2007-08 becoming one of the warmest winters on record.
The recent cold in the East and Great Lakes area is consistent with the Winter Forecast which called for colder seasonable winter weather at the beginning and end of the winter with warmer temperatures dominating what is climatologically the coldest part of the season. "There will be bouts with major winter events, which are typical even in the warmest of winters. We may see some of our wildest winter weather over the next month and then again in March or April," Bastardi said. "But energy interests should be aware that this winter will be one where much less than normal energy for heating will be used. Last winter, as we forecast, the warmth of January was followed by the sharp change to bitter cold weather. This winter the warmth will go on through February."
"This winter will be warmer from the Plains to the east coast, where more people live, and will remain warm through the months during which consumers typically use the most fuel energy" said Bastardi. "So, to most Americans this winter will be warmer than normal, warmer than last winter, and overall a more consumer-friendly winter for those buying fuel and gas."
Bastardi is forecasting January to be the warmest month with respect to normal from the Ohio Valley to the northeast. The projected result will be homeowners using 15-20% less fuel to heat their homes over this 30-day period and up to 10-15% less for the five coldest months, November through March.
Bastardi believes the combination of what may be a top-five La Niña event and a cycle of warming water temperatures in the Atlantic are key signals to the coming winter season. "I am more impressed than ever with the idea of a warm winter. I have almost never seen the computer models and analogs in such complete agreement," Bastardi said. "We are living in a time of climatic hardship with lots of unseasonable warmth, similar to the weather the U.S. experienced from the 1930s to 1950s. The winter of 1949-50 may be the best analog to this winter -- cold and snowy in the Pacific Northwest but very warm from Texas to New England."
Joe Bastardi’s complete, extended winter forecast, with more specific details, daily written discussions, video postings and forecast maps, is available to Joe Bastardi’s Energy Pro™ and Private Client Services through AccuWeather.com.
