With the globalization of this market, managers can no longer be contented with a local view. Nor can managers be contented with out-of-date statistics that appear several years after the fact. I have developed a methodology, based on macroeconomic and trade models, to estimate the market for avocados, guavas, mangoes, and mangosteens for those firms serving the world via exports and foreign direct investment. It does so for the current year based on a variety of key historical indicators and econometric models.
In what follows, this report begins by summarizing the world exporter’s market for avocados, guavas, mangoes, and mangosteens. The total level of exports on a worldwide basis is based on a model that aggregates across over 150 key country markets and projects these to the current year. From there, each country represents a percent of the world market. This market is served from a number of competitive countries of origin. Based on supply-side dynamics, market shares by country of origin are then calculated across each country market. These shares lead to a volume of import values for each country and are aggregated to regional and world totals. In doing so, we are able to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of both the value of each market and the shares that competitors (countries serving that market) are likely to receive this year. From these figures, world rankings are calculated to allow managers to prioritize markets. In this way, all the figures provided in this report are forecasts that can be combined with internal information for strategic planning purposes. Of the 150 countries considered, if a country is not reported here it is therefore estimated to have only a negligible level of trade in avocados, guavas, mangoes, and mangosteens (i.e. their market shares are close or equal to zero percent). "Avocados, Guavas, Mangoes, and Mangosteens"
Important Caveat. The figures should be seen as market estimates, as opposed to historical records, as these are forecasted for the current year of trade. More importantly, in light of the fact that unforeseeable factors might interrupt markets in achieving their reported levels, the figures should be seen as estimates of potential. For example, "mad cow" disease, foot-and-mouth disease, trade embargoes, military conflicts, acts of terrorism and other events will certainly affect the actual trade flows recorded for a variety of industry or product categories. In such cases, the difference between the numbers given in this report and the numbers actually observed might be interpreted as the "net loss" or "net gain" due to these exogenous events affecting regular trade flows that would have occurred had these events not have taken place.
Tables of Contents
1 Methodology & Executive Summary
1.1 Our Approach
1.2 The World Market: Imported Avocados, Guavas, Mangoes, and Mangosteens in 2006
1.3 The World Market: Avocados, Guavas, Mangoes, and Mangosteens Export Supplies in 2006
2 Africa:Avocados, Guavas, Mangoes, and Mangosteens Imports in 2006
2.1 Executive Summary
2.2 Morocco
2.3 Niger
2.4 South Africa
3 Asia:Avocados, Guavas, Mangoes, and Mangosteens Imports in 2006
3.1 Executive Summary
3.2 Bangladesh
3.3 Brunei
3.4 China
3.5 Hong Kong
3.6 Indonesia
3.7 Japan
3.8 Macau
3.9 Malaysia
3.10 Maldives
3.11 Singapore
3.12 South Korea
3.13 Taiwan
4 Europe:Avocados, Guavas, Mangoes, and Mangosteens Imports in 2006
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