Data services market – including broadband – is forecast to jump 11 percent for the 2008 fiscal year, the same as FY07, from $6.15 billion to about $6.82 billion.
The mobiles market, on the other hand, is expected to continue tapering with a more modest 4 percent increase forecast for FY08 to $12.12 billion. This represents a fall of 1 percent on the previous year, and is significantly less than the 11 percent growth rates for both the 2004 and 2005 fiscal years. Dampening overall growth for FY08 will be the fixed voice segment of the market, which is expected to slip by 3 percent, from $12.03 billion (FY07) to $11.67 billion (FY08). This will come on the back of an estimated 2 percent drop this financial year.
The data market, including broadband, has now taken over as the main driver of growth. “Given its overall market share in 2006 of 16.8 percent is still relatively small, its impact on the total market figure is only moderate. This will progressively pick up over the next five years to 2011.”The Voice over Internet Protocol market – projected to expand tenfold in users and revenue over the next five years – will give broadband its first kick-along. There will be a surge in users during 2008, with more than 1 million by the end of next year, half of which will be paid subscribers. The number of paid VoIP users is tipped to reach 1 million by 2010.
The overall number of broadband customers will pass 5 million by the end of next year, up another million on the previous year. At the same time, broadband’s share of the total market will rise from 18.1 percent this calendar year to 19.6 percent by the end of next. Voice and mobile will still hold about a third share each of the market.The quick take-up of broadband can be seen also in the proportion of internet customers switching from dial-up: 80 percent of all internet users will be on broadband by 2008, substantially up on the 58 percent two years ago.
Other key findings in the report:
More fixed-wireless alliances will emerge in 2007 and 2008 – such as the partnering of Soul, Austar and Unwired – as triple play models evolve;
Telstra still dominates with 44 percent market share at retail value, 70 percent at wholesale and 95 percent of profits;
Internet Protocol TV (IPTV) will continue to struggle in the absence of a killer business model, as will WiMAX, which is still dealing with mobility and other standardisation issues;
The future of broadband video lies in personal video communications, User Generated Content websites, news and other forms of online social networking, such as YouTube and MySpace;
The healthcare, education and energy sectors will capitalise on new faster, higher-capacity broadband infrastructure to deliver more cost-efficient, timely services.
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