World Motorcycles Forecasts for 2011 & 2016

PRLog (Press Release) - Oct 11, 2007 -
Demand for motorcycles worldwide will  rise 5.4 percent annually to 55.7 million units in 2011, with growth emanating from a mix of developed market incremental improvements and emerging market expansions. Demand for all categories of motorcycles is expected to remain healthy, despite the anticipated slowdown in key markets. China, for example, the largest motorcycle market and producer in unit terms, is rapidly transitioning away from motorcycles toward cars, and in the process flooding the world market with motorcycle exports. In contrast, rising fuel prices and increasing restrictions on car use are favoring motorcycles in developed markets. The market for large and expensive high displacement motorcycles will remain strong through 2011, but concerns regarding demand have emerged due to the aging of the customer base and rising insurance costs, especially in the US and Western Europe.

Higher value products dominate Triad market

Two separate motorcycle markets exist. The first is centered in the industrialized Triad (i.e., the US, Japan and Western Europe), where motorcycles are seen as pleasure vehicles by consumers who already have one or more automobiles. These motorcycles on average tend to be larger, more powerful machines which cost on average about $5,000 to $6,500 (in the US and Europe), and somewhat less in Japan. The other, much larger market in unit terms, is found in the emerging economies of the Asia/Pacific, Latin America and Africa/Mideast regions, where motorcycles are seen as primary family and work vehicles. These vehicles are cheaper, smaller and less powerful than Triad motorcycles.

Demand shifting toward light motorcycles in key Asia/Pacific region

Unlike the light vehicle industry, which has consolidated down to a handful of key global players, numerous motorcycle original equipment manufacturers  (OEMs) exist, especially in the Asia/ Pacific region, which represents the heart of global light motorcycle demand. However, competitive intensity is increasing, as evidenced by ongoing price wars in China, Vietnam, Indonesia and other Southeast Asian markets. Furthermore, restrictions on motorcycle use in large metropolitan areas of China and some other Asia/Pacific countries is causing a shift in demand away from urban areas to rural markets, which is causing a resulting change in product mix. Demand is moving away from scooters, mopeds and minibikes toward more robust and powerful light motorcycles,  which better suit rural transportation needs.

Study coverage

This new industry study, World Motorcycles, is available for $5400. It presents historical demand data for 1996, 2001 and 2006 plus forecasts for 2011 and 2016 by product, world region and for 19 major countries. The study also considers market environment factors, evaluates company market share and  profiles 31 global industry competitors.


 

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

1 Summary Table



Market Environment

World Economic Overview

Macroeconomic Developments

Macroeconomic Expectations

World Population Overview

World Light Vehicle Overview

Light Vehicle Production

Light Vehicle Sales

Motorcycle Industry Trends

Environmental & Regulatory Factors

Pricing Trends

Technological Trends

Ongoing Shift from 2-Stroke to 4-Stroke Engines

Arrival of Electric Motorbikes

LIST OF TABLES & CHARTS:

1 World Gross Domestic Product by Region

2 World Population by Region

3 World Light Vehicle Production

4 World Light Vehicle Sales

5 Motorcycle Wholesale Pricing

6 World Motorcycle Engine Type



World  Overview

Two Market Models: Developed & Emerging

Historical Context: Japan in the 1950s

Forecast Model Inputs

Demand by Region

Demand by Type

Motorcycle Production by Region

Foreign Trade in Motorcycles

LIST OF TABLES & CHARTS:

Cht Motorcycle Versus Passenger Car

Sales Trend -- Japan, 1950 to 2000

Cht Ratio of Motorcycle to Passenger Car

Sales -- Japan, 1950 to 2000

Cht Relationship of GDP per Capita to Relative

Motorcycle Sales Dominance --

Japan, 1950 to 1970

Cht Relationship of Income Distribution

to GDP per Capita, 2006

Cht Median Age Level in Selected

Countries, 2006

Cht Comparison of GDP per Capita

& Motorcycle Dominance

Cht Typical Motorcycle Market Transition

Points -- Selected Countries, 2006

1 World Motorcycle Demand by Region

Cht World Motorcycle Demand by Region, 2006

2 World Motorcycle Demand by Type

Cht World Motorcycle Demand by Type, 2006

3 World Motorcycle Production by Region

Cht World Motorcycle Production

by Region, 2006

4 World Motorcycle Net Exports by Region

Cht China Motorcycle Supply & Demand

Trends, 1992-2006



North America

North America: Motorcycle Demand by Type

United States

Canada

Mexico

LIST OF TABLES & CHARTS:

1 North America Overview

2 North America Motorcycle Demand by Type

3 United States Overview

4 United States Motorcycle Demand by Type

5 Canada Overview

6 Canada Motorcycle Demand by Type

7 Mexico Overview

8 Mexico Motorcycle Demand by Type



Western Europe

Western Europe: Motorcycle Demand by Type

Italy

France

Germany

Spain

United Kingdom

Other Western Europe

LIST OF TABLES & CHARTS:

1 Western Europe Overview

2 Western Europe Motorcycle

Demand by Type

3 Italy Overview

4 Italy Motorcycle Demand by Type

5 France Overview

6 France Motorcycle Demand by Type

7 Germany Overview

8 Germany Motorcycle Demand by Type

9 Spain Overview

10 Spain Motorcycle Demand by Type

11 United Kingdom Overview

12 United Kingdom Motorcycle

Demand by Type

13 Other Western Europe Overview

14 Other Western Europe Motorcycle

Demand by Type

Asia/Pacific

Asia/Pacific: Motorcycle Demand by Type

China

India

Indonesia

Vietnam

Thailand

Japan

Taiwan

South Korea

Australia

Other Asia/Pacific

LIST OF TABLES & CHARTS:

1 Asia/Pacific Overview

2 Asia/Pacific Motorcycle Demand by Type

3 China Overview

4 China Motorcycle Demand by Type

5 India Overview

6 India Motorcycle Demand by Type

7 Indonesia Overview

8 Indonesia Motorcycle Demand by Type

9 Vietnam Overview

10 Vietnam Motorcycle Demand by Type

11 Thailand Overview

12 Thailand Motorcycle Demand by Type

13 Japan Overview

14 Japan Motorcycle Demand by Type

15 Taiwan Overview

16 Taiwan Motorcycle Demand by Type

17 South Korea Overview

18 South Korea Motorcycle Demand by Type

19 Australia Overview

20 Australia Motorcycle Demand by Type

21 Other Asia/Pacific Overview

22 Other Asia/Pacific Motorcycle

Demand by Type



Other Regions

Other Regions: Motorcycle Demand by Type

Latin America

Latin America: Overview

Latin America: Motorcycle Demand by Type

Brazil

Other Latin America

Eastern Europe

Eastern Europe: Overview

Eastern Europe: Motorcycle Demand by Type

Africa/Mideast

Africa/Mideast: Overview

Africa/Mideast: Motorcycle Demand by Type

Turkey

Other Africa/Mideast

LIST OF TABLES & CHARTS:

1 Other Regions Overview

2 Other Regions Motorcycle Demand by Type

3 Latin America Overview

4 Latin America Motorcycle Demand by Type

5 Brazil Overview

6 Brazil Motorcycle Demand by Type

7 Other Latin America Overview

8 Other Latin America Motorcycle

Demand by Type

9 Eastern Europe Overview

10 Eastern Europe Motorcycle

Demand by Type

11 Africa/Mideast Overview

12 Africa/Mideast Motorcycle Demand by Type

13 Turkey Overview

14 Turkey Motorcycle Demand by Type

15 Other Africa/Mideast Overview

16 Other Africa/Mideast Motorcycle

Demand by Type

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