Oil & Gas Report Colombia
Independent 5-year oil and gas industry forecasts for Colombia.
Original oil and gas market research and oil and gas sector trend analysis for Colombia’s oil and gas industry.
Competitive intelligence, Colombian oil and gas company rankings and SWOT analyses on international and domestic oil and gas companies in Colombia.
The Colombia Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source in 2006, and features latest available data and forecasts for Colombia to end-2011 covering headline indicators for oil & gas, LNG, coal and power; company rankings and competitive landscapes covering oil & gas exploration and production in Colombia, refining, oil & gas distribution and fuels retailing; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory issues within Colombia.
Its Colombian Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Colombian oil and gas industry.
Key Benefits of Report
Benchmark itss Independent 5-Year Oil & Gas Industry Forecast for Colombia to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Colombian oil and gas market.
Target Business Opportunities & Risks in the Colombian Oil & Gas Sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Colombia.
Exploit The Latest Competitive Colombian Oil & Gas Intelligence & Company SWOTS on your competitors and peers through company rankings by sales, market share and ownership structure - includes multi national and national companies in Colombia.
Coverage
Executive Summary
Summary of itss key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand, refining, coal and power, and primary energy, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Regional Overview
Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports; overview of industry landscape and key players; assessment of business operating environment and latest regulatory developments.
Business Environment Rankings
A unique comparative study undertaken by It on the relative business climates across all regional markets covered. A rankings table highlights the merits of each market from an investor angle, giving scores for indicators such as Oil & Gas Supply and Demand Growth, Oil & Gas Reserves, Licensing Framework and the local Competitive Environment, as well as Economic and Political Risk.
Oil Market Outlook
It analyses and forecasts oil prices out to 2011, monitoring supply and demand in terms of oil production and consumption across the region.
It 5-Year Industry Forecast
Historic data series and 5-year forecasts to end-2011 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (000 b/d)
Oil exports (000 b/d), value of oil exports (US$mn - It base case) - Oil price (US$/bbl, OPEC basket)
Value of oil exports at constant US$30/bbl and constant US$60/bbl (US$mn)
Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)
Gas exports/(imports)
Value of gas exports/(imports)
Value of petroleum exports (US$mn); value of petroleum exports at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
It 5-Year Macroeconomic Forecast
It forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Competitive Landscape & Rankings
Comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, oil production (‘000 b/d) and % market share, downstream capacity (‘000 b/d) and % market share.
Company Profiles & SWOTS
Company profiles, including SWOT analyses, senior executives and full contact details, business activity, products and services, foreign direct investments and projects.
Executive Summary
The Sector At A Glance
Key Insights On The Oil & Gas Sector Of Columbia
The latest Colombia Oil & Gas Report from It forecasts that the country will account for 3.7% of Latin America regional oil demand by 2010, while providing 2.5% of supply. Latin America regional oil demand rose to 6.75mn b/d last year and should average 6.87mn b/d in 2006, before reaching 7.66mn b/d by 2010. Production of 10.76mn b/d last year is set to reach 11.62mn b/d by the end of the decade. Latin America gas consumption in 2005 was 170bcm, with demand of 255bcm targeted for 2010. Production last year of 164bcm should reach 255bcm by the end of the forecast period. Colombia’s share of consumption in 2005 was 4.1%, while its share of production was 4.3%. By 2010, its share of demand is forecast to be 3.5%, with the country accounting for 3.5% of supply.
Assuming an uneventful Q4, we are now predicting an OPEC basket price for 2006 averaging US$61.10/bbl – an increase of US$1.10 from our June forecast. This also represents a 19% rise from the FY05 average. Our forecasts for the US, Brent and Urals are US$66.40, US$65.40 and US$61.60/bbl respectively. For 2007, we continue to assume an OPEC basket price of US$50/bbl, which implies US$55.40 for the US, US$53.40 for Brent and US$49.50 for Urals. Prices are then forecast to fall by around US$5/bbl in 2008-2010, with the OPEC price averaging US$45/bbl over the period.
Colombian real GDP growth is now forecast by It at 4.7% for 2006, down from 5.2% in 2005. We are assuming 3.5% growth in 2007, 3.2% in 2008 and 2009, followed by 3.3% in 2010. The government and state-owned Ecopetrol are working hard to encourage IOC investment and stem the decline in domestic oil production. We are assuming oil and gas liquids production of no more than 290,000b/d by 2010, with the country expected to pump 529,000b/d this year. Consumption is forecast to increase by around 4% per annum to 2010, implying demand of 280,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. The export capability would therefore be just 10,000b/d by the end of the decade. Gas production is forecast to increase from 6.8bcm to 8.5bcm over the period, met by rising domestic production.
In the It Business Environment Ranking matrix, Colombia receives a higher composite score of 29 which now ranks the country equal fifth out of nine states included in the Latin America region, alongside Argentina. The overall business environment can be considered somewhat unattractive in a regional context, thanks largely to a high level of perceived economic and political risk, offset by the country’s effective licensing regime and mature competitive landscape. Reserves have been depleted, resulting in a low reserves-to-
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