Oil & Gas Report Trinidad & Tobago
The Trinidad & Tobago Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source in 2007, and features latest available data and forecasts for Trinidad & Tobago to end-2011 covering headline indicators for oil & gas, LNG, coal and power; company rankings and competitive landscapes covering oil & gas exploration and production in Trinidad & Tobago, refining, oil & gas distribution and fuels retailing; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory issues within Trinidad & Tobago.
Business Monitor International's Trinidad & Tobago Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Trinidadian oil and gas industry.
Key Benefits of Report
Benchmark BMI’s Independent 5-Year Oil & Gas Industry Forecast for Trinidad & Tobago to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Trinidadian oil and gas market.
Target Business Opportunities & Risks in the Trinidadian Oil & Gas Sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Trinidad & Tobago.
Exploit The Latest Competitive Trinidadian Oil & Gas Intelligence & Company SWOTS on your competitors and peers through company rankings by sales, market share and ownership structure - includes multi national and national companies in Trinidad & Tobago.
Coverage
Executive Summary
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand, refining, coal and power, and primary energy, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Regional Overview
Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports; overview of industry landscape and key players; assessment of business operating environment and latest regulatory developments.
Business Environment Rankings
A unique comparative study undertaken by BMI on the relative business climates across all regional markets covered. A rankings table highlights the merits of each market from an investor angle, giving scores for indicators such as Oil & Gas Supply and Demand Growth, Oil & Gas Reserves, Licensing Framework and the local Competitive Environment, as well as Economic and Political Risk.
Oil Market Outlook
BMI analyses and forecasts oil prices out to 2011, monitoring supply and demand in terms of oil production and consumption across the region.
BMI 5-Year Industry Forecast
Historic data series and 5-year forecasts to end-2011 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (000 b/d)
Oil exports (000 b/d), value of oil exports (US$mn - BMI base case) - Oil price (US$/bbl, OPEC basket)
Value of oil exports at constant US$30/bbl and constant US$60/bbl (US$mn)
Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)
Gas exports/(imports)
Value of gas exports/(imports)
Value of petroleum exports (US$mn); value of petroleum exports at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
BMI 5-Year Macroeconomic Forecast
BMI forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Competitive Landscape & Rankings
Comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, oil production (‘000 b/d) and % market share, downstream capacity (‘000 b/d) and % market share.
Company Profiles & SWOTS
Company profiles, including SWOT analyses, senior executives and full contact details, business activity, products and services, foreign direct investments and projects.
Executive Summary
The Sector At A Glance
Key Insights On The Oil & Gas Sector Of Trinidad & Tobago
The latest Trinidad & Tobago Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for just 0.5% of Latin America regional oil demand by 2010, while providing only 1.3% of supply. Latin America regional oil demand rose to 6.75mn b/d last year and should average 6.87mn b/d in 2006, before reaching 7.66mn b/d by 2010. Production of 10.76mn b/d last year is set to reach 11.62mn b/d by the end of the decade. Latin America gas consumption in 2005 was 170bcm, with demand of 255bcm targeted for 2010. Production last year of 164bcm should reach 255bcm by the end of the forecast period. T&T’s share of consumption in 2005 was 8.8%, while its share of production was 17.7%. By 2010, its share of demand is forecast to be 10.2%, with the country accounting for 21.6% of supply.
Assuming an uneventful Q4, we are now predicting an OPEC basket price for 2006 averaging US$61.10/bbl – an increase of US$1.10 from our June forecast. This also represents a 19% rise from the FY05 average. Our forecasts for the US, Brent and Urals are US$66.40, US$65.40 and US$61.60/bbl respectively. For 2007, we continue to assume an OPEC basket price of US$50/bbl, which implies US$55.40 for the US, US$53.40 for Brent and US$49.50 for Urals. Prices are then forecast to fall by around US$5/bbl in 2008-2010, with the OPEC price averaging US$45/bbl over the period.
T&T’s real GDP growth is now forecast by BMI at 12.0% for 2006, up from 7.0% in 2005. We are assuming 4.5% growth in 2007, 3.2% in 2008, followed by 3.1% in 2009 and 3.0% in 2010. The emphasis of several major IOC partners to the state in the hydrocarbons segment is on gas for LNG export, with limited potential for oil production. We are assuming oil and gas liquids production of no more than 150,000b/d by 2010, with the country expected to pump 180,000b/d this year. Consumption is forecast to increase by around 5% per annum to 2010, implying demand of 36,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. Gas production is forecast to increase from 29bcm to 55bcm over the period, with net exports growing from 14bcm to 29bcm by 2010, exclusively in the form of LNG.
In the BMI Business Environment Ranking matrix, T&T receives a higher composite score of 41 which continues to rank the country second out of nine states included in the Latin America region, but brings it closer to regional leader Chile. The overall business environment can be considered extremely attractive in a regional context, thanks largely to the country’s perceived low level of economic and political risk, above-average hydrocarbons output growth, moderate reserves to production ratio (RPR) and favourable regulatory/competitive framework. Increasing numbers of foreign companies have been drawn into Trinidad’s gas sector as a result of several world-class discoveries and the development of some of the industry’s biggest gas export facilities. The country has become a major supplier to the US and plans dramatic export expansion over the medium term, involving a number of leading IOCs.
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