Independent 5 year Automotive industry forecasts for Turkey.
Original Automotive market research and Automotive sector trend analysis for the Turkey Automotive industry.
Competitive intelligence, Turkish Automotive company rankings and SWOT analyses on international and domestic Automotive companies in Turkey.
The Turkey Automotives Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering production, sales, imports and exports; 5-year industry forecasts through end-2011; company rankings and competitive landscapes for multinational and local manufacturers and suppliers; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory changes.
It’s Turkish Automotives Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Turkish automotives market.
Key Benefits
Benchmark It’s independent 5-year Automotives Industry forecasts on Turkey to test other views – a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Turkish Automotives market.
Target Business Opportunities & Risks in the Turkish Automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Turkey.
Exploit the Latest Competitive Turkish Automotives Intelligence & company SWOTS on your competitors and peers through company rankings by production, sales, market share and ownership structure – includes multi national and national companies in Turkey.
Coverage
Executive Summary & Swot Analysis : Summary of the key industry forecasts and trend analysis, and commentary on key company and industry headline events. Collection of SWOT studies on local automotives market, economy and business environment.
Regional Overview : Cross-border analysis on the structure, size and value of the automotives sector, including comparative historical data and forecasts on the region’s sales and production figures.
Business Environment Rankings : Comparative guide to the region’s business environment, ranking of the regional markets by CBU Output Growth, Vehicle Penetration Potential, Regulation, Market Competition, Economics Risk and Politics Risk. The rankings table provides view on the competitiveness of the regional markets.
Market Overview : Outlook of local market, commenting on its structure, size and value.
5-Year Industry Forecast : Historic data series and 5-year forecasts to end-2009 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including: Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type, including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses; total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.
5-Year Macroeconomic Forecast : The forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Competitive Landscape : Comparative company analyses and rankings by production, sales, % market share, employees, registration date and ownership structure.
Company Profiles & SWOTS : Company profiles, including SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities & Threats) analyses, fully researched senior executives and full contact details, business activity, leading products and services.
Executive Summary
The Sector At A Glance
Key Insights On The Automotive Sector Of Turkey
It's Turkey Automotive Report forecasts a sharp drop in automotive sales in 2006, with the decline in the market likely to last into 2007. Domestic sales fell 10% year-on-year (y-o-y) in the January-November period to 586,446 units, with passenger-car sales down 12.4% and commercial vehicle sales down 6.8%. The sharp and unexpected drop in the automotive market matched broader macroeconomic trends, with Turkish gross national product (GNP) growth slowing to 3.0% y-o-y in Q406, well below expectations and down from 8.8% in Q206. Interest-rate hikes prompted by the central bank's cumulative 450 basis points (bps) hike in its overnight lending-rate in June-July are largely responsible for a drastic slowdown in consumer spending on cars. BMI forecasts a 10.5% fall in automotive sales in 2006 with car sales falling 14.0% and large commercial vehicles (LCV) sales falling 9.0%. BMI believes the car market will shrink by a further 5% in 2007, with total automotive sales set to decline by 3.5% due to a further fall in gross domestic product (GDP) growth and continuing depreciation of the lira which will push up the price of imported vehicles (70% of the cars sold in Turkey are imported). The market should only begin a full recovery from 2009.
The collapse in the Turkish market has not halted progress in the local manufacturing sector. Automotive production rose 13% y-o-y to 937,473 units in the first 11 months of 2006. Growth was stimulated by a 25% rise in exports to 637,360 units in the first 11 months of 2006, confirming the country's growing importance as a manufacturing hub for Europe and the Middle East. Turkey exported to 13 free zones and 165 countries, with Italy the largest market for the automotive sector with exports totalling US$1.4bn, followed by Germany, France, the UK and Spain. We forecast that exports will climb to around 1.02mn units by 2010, with an automotive trade surplus of US$5.77bn, assisted by high levels of investment in the industry and planned capacity-expansion. Despite an 82% rise in unit exports, the automotive industry will represent 8.3% of exports by 2010, down from an estimated 10.5% in 2005.
Ford Otosan was Turkey's largest autos producer in the first 11 months of 2006, producing around 59.1% of the country's commercial vehicle output and 46.7% of its buses. The largest passenger-car manufacturers were Oyak Renault, Toyota and Fiat joint venture Tofas, which manufactured 42.3%, 32.1% and 14.7% of segment output, respectively, in the first 11 months of 2006.
Ford was the largest imported brand in the first 11 months of 2006, representing 15.3% of imports, unchanged from 2005. Opel's share of total imports declined from 12.4% to 11.1%, while Volkswagen (VW) saw its share rise from 10.4% to 10.7%. Renault was the worst performer, with its share of imports slashed from 6.3% to 3.0%.
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