Ethylene Carriers: Fleet Set for Rapid Expansion?
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Product Description
This Ethylene Carriers: Fleet Set for Rapid Expansion? Briefing Report details the recent success of the ethylene market, its continued expansion and whether this growth can be sustained in the future.
Since 2003, the orderbook for ethylene vessels has grown from just one vessel, representing 1.1 per cent of the fleet, to 45 vessels in July 2006, 55.0 per cent of the current fleet. This rise has meant that new orders will soon exceed production capacity.
Market boom
Despite a ten year stagnation of the ethylene carrier market with limited investment, between December 2004 and July 2006 there was an unprecedented order boom for 44 new vessels. In the previous ten years, a total of only 26 carriers had been ordered.
Spot ethylene freight rates, which stayed around $120/mt between 2002 and 2004, began to climb in early 2004. By January 2005 transatlantic eastbound spot rates had exceeded $200/mt, reaching $225/mt by April 2006.
Sustainability
This predicts that good freight rates and forecasts of increased long-haul trade from new Middle-East production capacity will continue to drive production and new market entrants. Established ethylene carrier owners will have to capitalise on the forecasts of increased trade, defend their market share and modernise their fleets to sustain leadership.
This report finds that new production capacity and increased long-haul trade out of the Middle-East will create good demand growth for ethylene carriers, whilst scrapping will remove some capacity. With the huge orderbook and record number of deliveries due over the next two years, there is a high chance the ethylene carrier market will peak soon.
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