Vietnam Oil and Gas Research Report
Original oil and gas market research and oil and gas sector trend analysis for Vietnam’s oil and gas industry.
Competitive intelligence, Vietnamese oil and gas company rankings and SWOT analyses on international and domestic oil and gas companies in Vietnam.
The Vietnam Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source in 2006, and features latest available data and forecasts for Vietnam to end-2011 covering headline indicators for oil & gas, LNG, coal and power; company rankings and competitive landscapes covering oil & gas exploration and production in Vietnam, refining, oil & gas distribution and fuels retailing; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory issues within Vietnam.
Its Vietnamese Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Vietnamese oil and gas industry.
Key Benefits of Report
Benchmark Its Independent 5-Year Oil & Gas Industry Forecast for Vietnam to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Vietnamese oil and gas market.
Target Business Opportunities & Risks in the Vietnamese Oil & Gas Sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Vietnam.
Exploit The Latest Competitive Vietnamese Oil & Gas Intelligence & Company SWOTS on your competitors and peers through company rankings by sales, market share and ownership structure - includes multi national and national companies in Vietnam.
Coverage
Executive Summary
Summary of Its key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand, refining, coal and power, and primary energy, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Regional Overview
Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports; overview of industry landscape and key players; assessment of business operating environment and latest regulatory developments.
Business Environment Rankings
A unique comparative study undertaken by It on the relative business climates across all regional markets covered. A rankings table highlights the merits of each market from an investor angle, giving scores for indicators such as Oil & Gas Supply and Demand Growth, Oil & Gas Reserves, Licensing Framework and the local Competitive Environment, as well as Economic and Political Risk.
Oil Market Outlook
It analyses and forecasts oil prices out to 2011, monitoring supply and demand in terms of oil production and consumption across the region.
It 5-Year Industry Forecast
Historic data series and 5-year forecasts to end-2011 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (000 b/d)
Oil exports (000 b/d), value of oil exports (US$mn - It base case) - Oil price (US$/bbl, OPEC basket)
Value of oil exports at constant US$30/bbl and constant US$60/bbl (US$mn)
Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)
Gas exports/(imports)
Value of gas exports/(imports)
Value of petroleum exports (US$mn); value of petroleum exports at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
It 5-Year Macroeconomic Forecast
It forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Competitive Landscape & Rankings
Comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, oil production (‘000 b/d) and % market share, downstream capacity (‘000 b/d) and % market share.
Company Profiles & SWOTS
Company profiles, including SWOT analyses, senior executives and full contact details, business activity, products and services, foreign direct investments and projects.
Executive Summary
The Sector At A Glance
Key Insights On The Oil & Gas Sector Of Vietnam
The latest Vietnam Oil & Gas Report from It forecasts that the country will account for just 1.13% of Asia/Pacific regional oil demand by 2010, while providing 4.87% of supply. Asia/Pacific regional oil demand rose to an estimated 24.74mn b/d last year and should average 25.36mn b/d in 2007, before reaching 27.64mn b/d by 2010. Asia/Pacific gas consumption in 2006 is estimated at 419bcm, with demand of 602bcm targeted for 2010. Production last year of 342bcm should reach 490bcm by the end of the decade. Vietnam’s share of consumption in 2006 was an estimated 1.67%, while its share of production is put at 1.59%. By 2010, its share of demand is forecast to be 2.82%, with the country accounting for 3.50% of supply.
For the whole of last year, our preliminary estimates of average prices are US$61.30 per barrel for the OPEC basket, US$65.03 for Brent, US$66.24/bbl for WTI and US$61.30 for Urals. For 2007, the revised It forecasts are for the OPEC basket to average US$55 per barrel. Based on last year’s typical price differentials, this implies Brent at US$58.72, WTI averaging US$59.94/bbl, and Urals at US$55 per barrel. Our central view is that the OPEC basket price will slip from US$55/bbl this year to US$50 in 2008, before settling around US$45/bbl in 2009/2010.
Vietnamese real GDP growth is forecast by It at 8.2% for 2006, up from an estimated 8.0% in 2006. We are assuming 8.2% growth in 2008, followed by 8.7% in 2009 and 8.5% in 2010. Exploration success is on the rise in Vietnam, with a growing number of international oil companies (IOCs) partnering PetroVietnam in finding and developing hydrocarbon resources – particularly gas. We are assuming oil and gas liquids production of no more than 380,000b/d by 2010, although the country is thought to have pumped 390,000b/d last year. Consumption is forecast to increase by 4-6% per annum to 2010, implying demand of 311,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. Gas supply and demand is forecast to increase from last year’s estimated 7bcm to 17bcm by the end of the decade.
In the It Business Environment Ranking matrix, Vietnam receives a slightly higher composite score of 31, which now ranks the country joint seventh out of 14 states included in the Asia/Pacific region, alongside Thailand. The overall business environment can be considered neutral in a regional context, thanks to a very high level of perceived economic and political risk. These factors are offset partly by the country’s high oil/gas reserves to production ratio (RPR) and healthy short- to medium-term gas output growth. Neither Vietnam’s regulatory regime nor its competitive landscape is particularly attractive in a regional context. IOC spending has been rising, largely in conjunction with the development of the country’s gas industry.
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