Original telecommunications market research and telecommunications sector trend analysis for China's telecommunications industry.
Competitive intelligence, regional telecommunications company rankings and SWOT analyses on international and domestic telecommunications companies in China.
The China Telecommunications Report has been researched at source in 2006 and features latest-available data covering all headline indicators; 5-year industry forecasts through end-2011; company rankings and competitive landscapes covering leading multinational handset manufacturers and equipment vendors, domestic fixed-line and mobile operators, and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments.
China Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecommunications industry in China.
Key Benefits of Report
Benchmark It's Independent 5-Year Telecommunications Industry Forecast for China to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Chinese telecommunications market.
Target Business Opportunities & Risks in China's Telecommunications Sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in China.
Exploit Latest Competitive Chinese Telecommunications Intelligence & company SWOTS on your competitors and peers through company rankings by sales, market share, investments and leading products and services.
Coverage
Executive Summary
Summary of It's key industry forecasts and trend analysis, covering ICT, fixed-line, mobile and internet markets, and headline news of key industry events from the latest quarter.
Market Overview
At-a-glance outlook of the structure, size and value of the industry, including an overview of key players and a snapshot of regional penetration rates for fixed-line, mobile and internet markets.
Business Environment Rankings
It's provides a cross-border analysis of telecoms regulatory systems across regional markets, and their investor prospects, discussing the merits and downfalls of each country’s business environment, and ranking them in order of competitiveness. The rankings take into account industry factors, such as Market Maturity, Growth Potential, Competitive Environment and Licensing Framework in addition to It’s political and economic risk ratings.
5-Year Industry Forecast
Historic data series and 5-year forecasts to end-2011 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
Fixed-Line Telephony - Telephone Lines ('000); Telephone Lines/100 Inhabitants;
Cellular Telephony - Phone Subscribers ('000); Mobile Phone Subscribers/
Internet Markets - Internet Users ('000); Internet Users/100 Inhabitants;
Multimedia Markets - PCs ('000); PCs/100 Inhabitants;
5-Year Macroeconomic Forecast
It's forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Competitive Landscape & Rankings
Commentary on key operators highlighting ownership structures, latest available revenue figures, market share analysis and ARPU counts.
Company Profiles & SWOTS
Company profiles, including SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analyses, fully researched senior executives and contact details, business activity, leading products and services, and a record of all recent foreign direct investments and projects.
Executive Summary
Key Insights On The Telecommunications sector of China
Since the beginning of the decade, China has been seen as the most exciting telecoms market in the world in terms of subscriber growth potential. This might be starting to change. In the quarter ending September 2006, for the first time India outstripped China in terms of new mobile customers (17mn new subscribers in India, compared to 16.8mn in China). Clearly, China’s growth potential, and especially in its mobile market, remains huge, but there are signs that the long-expected slowdown is starting to take shape. The country’s high-speed internet market instead is the high-growth market, and indeed we project that it will not be too long before China overtakes the US as the world’s largest broadband market.
Our forecasts for both wireline and wireless sectors have changed markedly in this quarter’s update. Growth in China’s fixed-line market over the first nine months was 4.5% – we project that this will reach 6% by the end of 2006. China’s two largest fixed-line operators have new priorities, and these do not include investing further to bring in new customers. Non-voice data and next-generation cellular services have become potential growth drivers for the two operators. Subsequently, any increase in fixed-line subscriber numbers is suffering, and we now project a total of 406mn users by the end of the century, which represents an average annual growth rate of just 2% over the next four years.
We foresee more consistent growth in China’s mobile sector, at about 17% y-o-y until 2010, but whereas we did project in excess of 800mn subscribers by the end of 2010 in our Q3 report, we have now revised this to about 769mn. The continued fall in the number of China’s youth will not help mobile growth, and nor will the growing disparity between the country’s rural and urban populations. The key potential for growth lies in China’s rural areas, but it is here that consumers are at their poorest, and increasingly so. It will remain a key challenge for operators to migrate China’s least sophisticated members of the population to mobile telephony, and especially next-generation mobile services.
China, perhaps surprisingly, remains towards the foot of our Business Environment Rankings for the telecoms industry. Beyond China’s undoubted growth potential and its continuing successful economy, the telecoms market is largely state-owned and does not have the benefits of a truly free competitive market, such as India. Inward investment in any meaningful sense is not allowed for operators. Vodafone and Telefonica have minor stakes in China Mobile and China Netcom respectively, whilst China Unicom has a partnership arrangement with SK Telecom, but these companies play an insignificant part in the market. There is some speculation that the government is discussing the possibility of liberalising its telecoms industry. Indeed, China Telecom is reportedly in discussions with no fewer than five potential investors. These are thought to be Verizon, NTT DoCoMo, SingTel, France Telecom and Deutsche Telekom. The operator will make no decision over its future ownership before it hears whether it has won a 3G licence. We like the chances of US carrier Verizon, which deploys a CDMA network in the US, and especially if China Telecom were to be awarded with a CDMA-based 3G network.
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