Ranked 110th in the Fifa World rankings and with no points in their previous six group E games every leans towards an easy win for the Three Lions. That said, and given England’s current unpredictability, I would not be advising anyone lumping on at odds of around ¼ in the match odds, with plenty of other betting opportunities looking better value.
Estonia made Croatia pull out all the stops last Saturday in their latest qualifier, only going down 1-0 at the final whistle. Based on this and looking at their other recent games I expect England to get by this tricky tie, but not by scoring the four or five some people might be predicting.
My thinking here is further backed up by the fact Estonia have only conceded 11 goals in their six Euro 2008 games so far (Ave 1.8 goal conceded per game). In all they have played four at home and have lost three of them only 1-0.
So based on this my first bit of advise is to delve into the correct score market. England in my opinion look a solid bet to come away from the game with either a 1-0 or 2-0 win, and covering both at 6/1 and 11/2 respectively will still yield a nice profit.
Onto England. Since McClaren took the reigns after last summers World Cup the former Boro bosses record does not make great reading. P10 W4 D4 L2. In those same 10 games the team have scored 15 and conceded 5, but with a high number of draws England these days are not as much of a safe bet as people sometimes think.
The return of Beckham has taken some of the spotlight away from McClaren, and although this was not intentional I’m sure he’s glad of the slight diversion. In bringing Becks back he of course had to eat a large slice of humble pie, but in doing so he’s indirectly admitted that the players he thought could fill the ‘Beckham void’ are either not yet up the to the task, or never will be.
The former captain never knows when to lie down, and after proving in the past he’s at his strongest after he’s gone through a rough time in his life fully deserves to be back in the fray. His performances for Real Madrid have been out of the top draw in recent weeks and if the Spanish giants do land La Liga they have only have one player to thank. His inclusion last Friday against Brazil was an emotional return, and after setting up the goal and almost scoring himself he’s fully justified the recall.
Elsewhere Peter Crouch looks certain to partner Michael Owen in attack and this pairing could be the right combination to cause serious problems. With Beckham’s high-class deliveries, Owen’s pace and Crouch’s height the Estonia defenders are sure to know they are in a game.
Crouch is the highest scoring England player under McClaren with five goals so far and at around 6/1 to net the opener he is certainly worth a second look.
So overall, at around ¼, backing England in the match odds won’t change your life, but with a tight defensive display expect an England clean sheet with 1-0 and 2-0 scorelines sure to give you a run for your money at worst. The final bit of advise is at 6/5 the under 2.5 goals is worth a punt with five of Estonia’s six Euro 2008 qualifiers have seen this bet come in. Most people will be expecting a high-scoring game, not knowing that much about Estonia, but being away from home, and the fact Estonia don’t let that many in we could just be in for a tighter game than McClaren would have liked.
Recommended bets
2pts – 1-0
2pts - 2-0
2pts – Under 2.5 goals
1pt – Crouch 1st goal
• All prices correct at time of writing.
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