Statistics
• 6/10 - 60% of favourites have won the last 10 runnings of the Vodafone Oaks
• 3/10 - Leading Irish trainer Aidan O'Brien has won the race three times in the last 10 years
• 10/10 - Favourites were placed in the last 10 years
• 8/10 - Won their previous race
• 2/10 - Ran their previous race in the English 1,000 Guineas
• 2/10 - Ran in the Musidora at York last time out
• 2/10 - Ran at the Curragh last time out
• 3/10 - Three Irish trained horses have won the race in the last 10 years
• 3/10 - Henry Cecil is the most successful trainer in recent times winning the race 3 times in the last 10 years, and saddles leading fancies Passage of Time and Light Shift
• 4/10 - Top jockey Kieren Fallon has been the most successful jockey winning the race four times in the last 10 years, but will miss the contest this time.
After a spell in the doldrums all eyes will be on popular trainer Henry Cecil here. The Warren Place handler had made the race his own in the nineties, landing the Classic three times in the last decade, and if he were to add to that tally you’ll cheer the cheers from Epsom for miles!
Unlike the glory years he’s only got a handful of 3 year-old fillies in the yard at present but in Passage Of Time and Light Shift he hold the first and second in the betting.
Of the pair Passage of Time looks their number one, after winning the Musidora at York last month. She’ll come on a bundle for that first run of the season and with 60% of favourites winning in the last 10 runnings and 100% of them being placed she should go close. She’s also run on a soft surface before, so there will be no issues on that front, but she has been running recently with an abscess in her throat. Connections are adamant it will not be a problem and will surely not be risking her if they thought otherwise.
Their second entry Light Shift only won the Cheshire Oaks by just under a length, but she did it well and looked to have a bit left in the tank at the end. She’ll be hard to keep out of the frame if running up to that form, but one word of caution is that she’s yet to race on a soft surface with all her races coming on good to firm.
Looking at the trends, as well as Cecil, Irish handler Aidan O’Brien has also won the fillies Classic three times in the last decade, and with four runners he holds every chance of adding to that run.
Of the quartet All My Loving looks their best chance. She’s only had two runs so is still fairly unexposed and her close second to Light Shift in the Cheshire Oaks was a decent effort. The tight turns of Chester will have given her valuable experience, and although Epsom is not tight, it does have numerous undulations so a balanced horse can often be the key. The yard feel she has come on for that effort and are expecting her to love the soft ground conditions, so at around 12/1 she looks cracking each-way value.
Eight of the last 10 winners won their previous race, which only leaves seven possible winners if this stat is to be continued; Dalvina, Dance of Light, Four Sins, Kayah, Light Shift, Measured Tempo and Passage of Time.
So with the Cecil and O’Brien teams dominating the race I’m going to stick with them. Passage of Time looks the most likely winner to become the third Musidora winner to go on and land the Oaks, while it’s also worth having a saver on Light Shift, in the hope the ground suits, and O’Brien’s All My Loving, who by all accounts will have no issues with the soft conditions.
Recommended bets
3pts win - Passage of Time
1pt e/w – Light Shift
1pt e/w – All My Loving
• All prices correct at time of writing.
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