Betting Update; Irish 2,000 Guineas with the bookmakers making Cockney Rebel their 5/6 favourite

May 25, 2007 - PRLog -- Vital Equine was just over a length behind him that day in second and looks set to renew rivalry. He also was a surprise to run such a great race, and if he repeats that form he’ll certainly be hard to keep out of the shake-up.

Of the rest Duke of Marmalade was a further length back at Newmarket in fourth, and after looking as if he’d come on for that run he represents Ireland’s main challenger from the powerful Aiden O’Brien yard.

So looking at the trends many people will be keen to take on Cockney Rebel, the likely favourite, as only two of the last 10 market leaders have won, with 6/10 returning at odds of 8/1 of bigger. This indicates that the race is not a great contest for the jolly with horses coming on for their first few runs of the season. Add in the fact that Rock of Gibraltar is the only horse to complete the English/Irish 2,000 Guineas double in the last decade, then this further adds to the reasons to oppose Cockney Rebel.

The Irish have not won the race since ‘The Rock’ landed that contest back in 2002, which is surprising, but with Aiden O’Brien’s record of three winners in the last 10 runnings his entries are always to be respected.

Duke of Marmalade looks his best chance on the book, but don’t be afraid to look at other runners he has further down the betting. Two of those three recent winners have been priced 20/1 and 8/1, so based on this his Eagle Mountain is worth a second look to improve past his seasonal debut fifth in the English version.

The final stand-out stat is that all of the last five winners ran in the English 2,000 Guineas last time out, but not necessarily winning. Four of those past winners ran down the field in the Newmarket Classic, which clearly indicates that a lot do come on for that early season run.

Only Cockney Rebel, Duke of Marmalade, Eagle Mountain and Vital Equine ran at Newmarket, so based on that and the great O’Brien record I’m going to take a chance with Eagle Mountain. He’s a previous course and distance winner and if you take his decent form behind Teofilo and Authorized last season he could spring a slight surprise.

Recommended Bets - 2pts e/w Eagle Mountain
Recommended Bets - *LAY* Cockney Rebel

•   All prices correct at time of writing.

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