In terms of stats and trends for their big race, the Chester Cup, there are some significant pointers to try to guide you in the right direction.
We all know the draw here is key, the lower the better, and even over these longer trips. So with eight past winners coming from stall 9 or less this puts a big negative against almost half the field including horses like Greenwich Meantime, Fair Along, Whispering Death and Galient.
The next thing of significance to note is that eight of the last 10 winners have carried 9 stone or less to victory. This adds further black marks against the top seven on the card including Galient, Greenwich Meantime and Under the Rainbow.
Other trends to take notice of are that 7/10 ran no more than 25 days ago and finished in the top 5 in their previous run. These stats are big positives for Irish raider Grafton Street. You could argue that no Irish-trained winner has taken the race in the last 10 years, but I’m sure they’ve not had many runners, so this trend could be a tad misleading.
Of the rest at bigger odds that have ticks in most of the boxes are Nordwind, Dzesmin, Flare Star and Odiham. So a small each-way bet is advised on these at rewarding odds, while the main bet is the Aiden O’Brien trained Grafton Street, with a nice draw in seven, running only 24 days ago, finishing in the top five last time out and with only 8-10 to carry.
• All prices correct at time of writing.
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