Coral continue their sponsorship of the Scottish National, and like all the others it’s a tricky handicap to unravel. So, after the success of the trends last week, where we highlighted the first three home in the Aintree showcase, there is a lot to live up to.
Unlike at Aintree, where there are a lot more positive trends to work with, the Scottish version has a much harder look to it, but all the same lets try to knock a few out.
To me the key points to make are that 100% of the last 10 winners finished in the top 5 in their previous race. Any stat that carries this amount of weight should always be noted and in doing so knocks out a fair few; including the well-fancied pair Rambling Minster and Napolitain. This trend can also be taken a step further, as 70% of those 10 winners actually came in the top 3. So if this is taken on trust then we can put a line though a few more; including Run for Paddy and previous Welsh National winner L’Adventure.
Whereas the Irish have dominated Aintree in recent years, they have a poor record in this race, with no wins in the last 10 years. This rules out the only Irish runner, Michael Hourigan’s A New Story. While the top three on the card, Joaaci, Idle Talk and Cornish Rebel, will be up against it with only 3 horses carrying more than 11-2 to victory in the last 10 runnings.
The final positive trend is that 7/10 winners ran no more than 41 days ago. This puts a negative against Classic Capers and Run for Paddy, while with no horse under the age of seven winning, the current jolly Nine De Sivola at 6 years-old might just be too young.
So, after all that crossing out to me backing the well-fancied duo Character Building and Parsons Legacy, who both fit the days since last run, form and age trends. Plus, looking further down the betting Another Rum and High Cotton, at big prices, could go well after also fitting past trends.
Last week’s National tri-cast paid over £12,500, so with four selections in these big races it’s always worth perming up this bet, which is a total of 24 bets.
Main fancies - Character Building and Parsons Legacy
Longshots - Another Rum and High Cotton
Lay – Nine De Sivola
Tricast - Character Building, Parsons Legacy, Another Rum, High Cotton - £1 combination tricast = 24 bets
Combination tricast perms
Number of horses selected – Three = 6 bets
Number of horses selected – Four = 24 bets
Number of horses selected – Five = 60 bets
Number of horses selected – Six = 120 bets
Number of horses selected – Seven = 210 bets
Number of horses selected – Eight = 336 bets
Number of horses selected – Nine = 504 bets
Number of horses selected – Ten = 720 bets
• All prices correct at time of writing.
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