This Key Note Market Report on cigarettes and tobacco covers the market for cigarettes, hand-rolling tobacco (HRT), cigars and pipe tobacco. In 2003, the total UK cigarettes and tobacco market was worth £15.27bn at retail selling prices (rsp), a rise of 2.3% on 2002. Cigarettes dominate sales and, in 2003, accounted for 90.2% of the total market.
According to National Statistics' Consumer Trends, cigarettes continue to account for a significant proportion of consumer expenditure on tobacco. UK consumers spend more on tobacco than they do on alcoholic beverages (expenditure on which amounted to £12bn in 2003), health (£11.6bn) or education (£9.3bn). However, the popularity of smoking is in long-term decline and this trend seems set to continue. In 2002, just 26% of the adult population were smokers, compared with 45% in the mid-1970s.
The main factors driving the long-term decline include: concerns relating to the impact of smoking on health, the growing view that smoking is an anti-social habit, increasing restrictions governing where people can smoke and how companies can market their products, and the rising cost of legally bought tobacco. Consumers are increasingly turning to economy brands and smuggled tobacco - contraband products and those legally bought abroad account for 31% of sales - in response to taxation increases. In addition, this has a negative impact on the overall size of the market in value terms.
The cigarettes and tobacco industry is highly concentrated, with just two companies - Gallaher Group PLC and Imperial Tobacco Group PLC - accounting for around 80% of sales by value. One other major firm, British American Tobacco PLC (BAT), manufactures cigarettes in the UK, but sells almost all of them abroad. Although all of these companies are based in the UK, they are, in effect, international companies that sell their brands globally. Indeed, they are increasingly focusing activities on developing countries, which tend to have less stringent health and advertising regulations, and where the potential for brand development remains significant.
Key Note forecasts that, between 2004 and 2008, the cigarettes and tobacco market will experience only limited growth. Following the introduction of the advertising ban in February 2003, tobacco firms supply the only legally available product that cannot be advertised. This ban means that it is almost impossible to launch new brands or products in the UK. In addition, the Government is under great pressure to introduce further restrictions, such as a ban on smoking in public areas. Anti-smoking campaigns by the Government and anti-smoking bodies, as well as mounting evidence of the adverse effects of smoking on health, will also resonate strongly with an increasingly health-conscious population. Smoking among the adult population has been in decline over the past 3 decades and this trend will almost certainly continue. In addition, it might accelerate during the remainder of the current decade. Although the market will continue to grow in value terms, this will largely occur as a result of taxation increases and Key Note expects that sales growth will decelerate over the 5-year period.
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