Betting Update; Liverpool v PSV with the bookmakers making Liverpool their 8/15 favourites

PRLog (Press Release) – Apr 11, 2007 – You never know an early goal for the Dutch side and that would change everything, but although that would be great for PSV fans I think you’ve got a better chance of winning tonight’s midweek lottery draw. To me after seeing PSV’s performance last week even if Ronald Koeman’s side turn up a 100% better team they still won’t be good enough.

In the first leg in Eindhoven eight days ago in all the European games I’ve seen at this late stage in the competition I don’t think I’ve seen such a dour performance from a home side. As soon as the first Liverpool goal went in they looked a beaten team, all at sea and totally disinterested. The Reds quickly picked up on this and before PSV could snap themselves out of it Rafa’s men added another two goals, and with that the tie is effectively over at the halfway stage - 3-0 (away from home).

Liverpool indeed have a lot of experience of coming back from 3-0 down in Europe, but it will be PSV who will be studying the 2005 final video if they want to inflict a similar comeback on the comeback kings.

If you add in the fact that PSV have never in their Champions League history won by a 3-goal margin on their travels they this further highlights the magnitude of the task ahead.

The team news for the Reds will see Sami Hyypia return at the heart of defence, while after getting that convenient yellow card in last week’s game; Dirk Kuyt will sit this one out and in the process clearing his yellow card haul for the later rounds. Due to his absence Craig Bellamy and Peter Crouch are entrusted to try to add to Liverpool’s three goal lead, while although I can’t see it myself don’t be surprised to see Steven Gerrard play a lesser role, with the view to resting their starman.

For PSV they only travel with a squad of 16, as defender Alex, who missed the 1st-leg, former Liverpool defender Jan Kromkamp and Michael Reiziger are all still on the sidelines.

PSV will now of course be playing for pride after being the laughing stock of Europe last week and will be thankful of Man Utd’s 7-1 drubbing of Roma last night to revert some of that humiliation. Koeman’s side will however know that Liverpool have been a bit shaky at home in recent weeks, losing two of their last three.

At home in this competition this season Liverpool are P4 W3 D0 L1 with one of those wins a 2-0 win over PSV. They have scored 8 in those games and only let in the 3, so even at short odds it’s hard to see anything but a Liverpool win.

After yesterday’s games Liverpool will also now know that Chelsea await them in the semis in a game that will be a repeat of the semi back in 2005 when Liverpool went on to win the cup. So because of this one thing is for sure Rafa will not let his side become complacent here, in a game they will treat as if its 0-0.

The betting understandably has Liverpool as the favourites in the match odds at around 8/15, with the draw 14/5 and PSV as big as 7/1.

For me even at 7/1 with three defeats in their last four games (other game a draw) surely PSV can’t be backed and I think the 8/15 on a Liverpool win, although short, looks a decent price. Yes, we’d love 100/1 winners all the time, but as you know that just doesn’t happen, but even 8/15 shots can be value if you think they should be shorter.

In the scoring markets Peter Crouch, with 5 Champions League goals, is only two behind Kaka and one off Drogba, so will be keen to use this easier game to try to close the gap and at 9/5 he looks a great bet just to score tonight.


5pts – Liverpool to win
3pts – Crouch to score

* All prices correct at time of writing.

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