Betting Update; Valencia v Chelsea with the bookmakers making Liverpool their 7/4 favourites

PR Log (Press Release) – Apr 10, 2007 – So far five English opponents have made the trip and all failed – Arsenal twice, Liverpool, Man Utd and Leeds.

After last week’s 1st-leg clash the tie is nicely poised at 1-1, but with that vital away goal the Spaniards will be confident of progressing and meeting Liverpool in the semi-finals.

So with Chelsea needing to find the net at least once and then keeping the goals at the other end to a minimum can they do it?

Well looking at their away form in Europe this season and their overall recent games to me the answer is yes.

In five of their last six games on the road in Europe they have managed to find the net at least once and with proven Champions League performers in Didier Drogba, Michael Ballack and Andrei Shevchenko few will disagree that this team are more than capable of finding the net again.

The Blues are also boosted by the return of Michael Essien, who until getting injured had been by far their best player this season and with him in the side they look a much more complete side. With most of his other stars also fit and ready, including Joe Cole, for one of the first times this campaign boss Jose Mourinho will have near on his full quota of players to help him get through this tricky tie.

After the 1st leg last week the two sides come here on the back of very different results with Chelsea continuing their league charge beating Spurs 1-0, while the Londoners will draw confidence from the fact Valencia slumped to a 1-0 defeat at Ath Bilboa.

Looking at the home side here the key players will like last week be David Silva and David Villa who have both been subject to plenty of Premiership transfer rumours this season. With 11 goals the last named looks their best chance of a goal and at around 21/10 just to score I’m sure he will be popular in that market.

The match odds to me have a slightly strange look to them, as with Valencia’s impressive home record (La Liga this season W11 D1 L2) the bookmakers in places making the Spaniards the slight underdogs. However, the BestPrices in that market are Chelsea 7/4, Valencia 9/5 and the draw 21/10.

It’s the stalemate that interests me the most at those odds and that’s were my advice is centred around. A repeat of last week’s 1-1 draw looks the most likely outcome to me and is sure to give backers a run for their money at worst. In my opinion one of the teams are bound to make a breakthrough and providing there is enough time for the other team to respond in a game where risks can be taken there is a good chance the chasing team will level it up.

Of course you could argue that if this situation arises and a team is pressing for an equaliser then they could be vulnerable to concede a second, but for me it makes much more sense to make the 1-1 at 11/2 with both teams more than capable of scoring goals.

The final bets that are worth looking at is the 11/10 on Chelsea to qualify as opposed to the 4/6 on Valencia, while although a short price the 4/7 on offer on there being under 2.5 goals looks banker material.


Rec bets

5pts – Under 2.5 goals
3pts – Chelsea to qualify
2pts – Draw
1pt – 1-1 correct score

* All prices correct at time of writing.

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