Out of the eight sides in the hat for these quarter-final clashes few would disagree that PSV were the team that everyone wanted and after getting them I’m sure all Liverpool fans will be eying the semi finals already. That said the Dutch outfit did eliminate last years finalists Arsenal in the previous round after a superb showing of resilient defending and any complacency from the Merseysiders could prove dangerous.
Liverpool got this far by putting in the shock result of the last set of matches when they saw off last year’s winners and tournament favourites Barcelona to throw this season competition right open.
Unlike the other three quarter finals Liverpool and PSV have already met this season in the earlier rounds and after a 0-0 draw in Eindhoven and then a comfortable 2-0 win at Anfield, courtesy of goals from Gerrard and Crouch, the Reds will know that a repeat of those games will see them in the last four.
After winning the Champions League two years ago Liverpool have really made this event their own and overall in Europe in recent times they are proving one of the hardest teams to break down and beat – with so far this campaign keeping four clean sheets in their eight games and have only tasted defeat once.
Based on this the bookmakers have made Liverpool their 6/4 favourites in the match odds, despite being away from home, with the draw 21/10 and PSV around 9/4.
At those odds Liverpool will have plenty of support, especially from the British punters, but for me I think they are a bit short to really get stuck in to, especially for a team away from home in Europe. Add in the fact the game is bound to be a cagey affair with both sides keen not to throw away their chances in this opening match I think the Reds are worth opposing here.
All this said I expect Liverpool to qualify at around 4/9, and I’ sure they are happy to get the away leg out the way first, but they might just have to settle for a draw here as PSV are no mugs, notably in front of their home fans. In this competition the Dutch outfit have won a huge 12 and drawn 3 of their last 17 home games, a home record that is up there with the best of them.
Looking at Liverpool their form in Europe further backs up my thinking of a tight encounter as they have only lost once on the road in Europe this season (3-2 to Galatasary when already qualified), while if we go back further they have in fact only lost twice on the road in their last 15 Champions League games.
To add to the interest the two clubs have plenty of connections with Liverpool’s Boudewijn Zenden winning the title for PSV back in 1996/97, while Dirk Kuyt plied his trade at rivals Feyenoord last season. For PSV they signed defender Jan Kromkamp from the Reds last summer, while well known pair Patrick Kluivert and Michael Reiziger, who are now at PSV, played in the Premiership against Liverpool back in 2004/05.
So, with both clubs putting formidable home and away records on the line for me the best option is to plump for the draw at around 21/10, while backing the total goals between 0-1 is also advised at around 33/20 as this also covers you in case one of the sides sneaks a 1-0 win.
Finally at a bigger price a repeat of the 0-0 scoreline when the pair met here back in September is interesting at around 6/1, as is Liverpool to keep their fifth European clean sheet this season at 5/4.
Recommended bets
5pts – Liverpool to qualify
2pts – Draw
2pts – Liverpool clean sheet
2pts – Total goals between 0-1
1/2pt – Correct Score 0-0
* All prices correct at time of writing.
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