Trade in perishable products has expanded steadily in recent years, spurred by economic growth and increasing prosperity in East Asia and the transitional economies. However, the past decade has also seen the share of conventional reeferships eroded year by year through competition from containerships. After several awful years for the reefer shipping industry, marked by rationalisation and mergers, 2002-04 brought a recovery in freight rates, from which both conventional reefer and containership operators benefited. However, the orderbook for containership newbuilding is at an all-time high. Will the reefership recovery last?
Refrigerated Trades and Outlook to 2015 analyses recent trends and the complicated dynamics of a market, which is defined not only by the supply/demand balance in the reefer industry, but also by that in the container shipping industry.
Forecasts to 2015 are developed for the trade in refrigerated goods, by commodity and type of vessel.
Technical developments in reefership construction are outlined, notably those designed to enable conventional reefers to compete effectively with the container industry.
The reefership and containership fleets, and their associated reefer capacity are analysed, and the reefer operations of both reefer and container carriers are profiled. Recent newbuilding activity and the type of vessels being built are reviewed. The implications of current low ordering on capacity in the reefership fleet and of large-scale ordering on containership capacity are evaluated – and also the likely impact on future freight rates.
Imports and exports of seaborne refrigerated cargoes are analysed by source and destination since 1990, covering the following commodity groups:
● Bananas & plantains
● Deciduous fruits: apples, grapes, pears, peaches, kiwi fruit, plums
● Citrus fruits: oranges, tangerines, lemons & limes, grapefruits, pomelos
● Tropical fruits: melons, pineapples, mangoes, avocados, papayas & others
● Meat: poultry, bovine, porcine and ovine
● Fishery products: frozen, chilled & freshwater fish, crustaceans, molluscs & cephalopods
● Dairy products: butter & cheese.
Forecasts of demand growth are derived for each of the trades by major importing region. The forecasts are aggregated, and the conventional reefership and containership shares of future trade are also predicted. Future productivity and reefer freight rate levels are calculated by relating the conventional reefer trade forecasts to anticipated fleet capacity growth and the likely interaction of containership freight rates.
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