After losing to Croatia last October and before that drawing with Macedonia at home England seem to be in that familiar situation of never making things easy for themselves. Due to those poor results they sit third in Group E with just 7 points after four games and are only just ahead of their opponents here Israel and Macedonia (both also on 7 points) on goal difference.
Croatia top the group and look certainties for one of the two qualifying spots, while Russia in second will not go down without a fight, which is why this game in Tel Aviv falls into the ‘Must Win’ category for Steve McClaren’s side.
A further point which adds to the importance of this game is the fact that Russia face an easy looking trip to Estonia, while group leaders Croatia have home advantage against Macedonia and also look destined for another three points.
Most England supporters will take one look at Israel and expect their beloved England to thump them 3 or 4 nil, but they are no mugs and with two wins a draw and only one defeat against the groups top side Croatia (4-3) they are more than capable of holding their own at this level, and are in fact the groups second highest scorers with nine goals.
Players to note for the home side will be the familiar Premiership pair of Tal Ben Haim and Yossi Benayoun and with the last named sure to be well up for this game and already on the scoresheet in previous Euro qualifiers at 5/1 he looks their best chance of a goal.
This first-leg of McClaren’s ‘big week’ is by far his hardest as a defeat against Estonia on Wednesday will top the 0-0 home draw with Macedonia ten-fold as one of England’s worst ever results. The Three Lions are around the 10/11 mark to win this crucial game and even at that price the weekend football punters are bound to steam in. It seems to me that on big England games the British punters seem to have memory lapses as to the form of their side, and yes I’ll give it to them that they are loyal, but for me it seems we’ve been in this situation far too many times before, which inevitably results in disappointment.
So, given the expected pressure that’s sure to surround the game, and the form England take into this match the 10/11 is worth taking on. Since thumping Andorra 5-0 back in September England have only beaten Macedonia (1-0), but have lost to Spain (1-0), Croatia (2-0) and drawn with Holland (1-1) and Macedonia (0-0) – not inspiring form to be going into one of their most important games in recent years.
Looking at the England squad it’s mainly the same familiar faces, but it’s up front for me that highlights the most concern. Apart from Rooney, with Defoe, who’s been keeping the Spurs bench warm for most of the season, new-boy David Nugent and Andy Johnson I think that we could just struggle for goals from that area and with only one goal in the last four England games this is further evident that McClaren is yet to find his perfect striking pairing.
I’d much preferred to see Crouch in the side, but he’s injured, so if they do score for me it’s more likely to come from midfield with Gerrard or Lampard the obvious choices to get them out of jail again and are 7/2 and 11/4 respectively to find the net . Of the rest they welcome Aaron Lennon back, and he’s sure to cause problems, while World Cup star player Owen Hargreaves is also another positive.
With Terry leading the backline alongside the in-form trio of Ferdinand, Cole and Carragher things have a very tight look at the back and at 11/10 the price for an England Clean Sheet looks a solid bet.
At around 21/5 Israel will have their supporters, but deep down it will be a huge shock if they pull off a win, and although I’d love to see McClaren come out of these games with two wins it’s can be costly to back with the heart in these England games and to me the draw at around 23/10 looks the safest option.
Of the other markets the 8/13, although short, in the under 2.5 goals market looks a sure-fire winner with our tight defence and lack of scoring goals, while at 7/1 the 0-0 scoreline is worth a small interest just in case the game turns into a ‘bore-draw’
Recommended bets
3pts - Draw
3pts - Under 2.5 goals
3pts - England Clean Sheet
1pt - 0-0 Correct Score
• All prices correct at time of writing.
ABOUT EASYODDS.COM
Easyodds.com is a comprehensive sport betting service that helps you find the BEST ODDS on offer from leading bookmakers, betting exchanges and spread betting firms and then helps you place your bet at the BestPrice.
FREE to register!
www.easyodds.com
Andrew Newton
Managing Editor
020 7691 0660
