New Third Edition :
The world is drawing down its oil reserves faster than ever and is facing a medium term future of oil price increases that will occur sooner than many people believe. These are amongst the conclusions of the 3rd edition of the acclaimed study The World Oil Supply Report 2004-2050.The World Oil Supply Report analyses and explains peak production capacity. It considers all existing and potential oil producing countries, forecasting individual production profiles including the year and level of peak production. It quantifies all known and yet-to-find oil reserves and resources, including conventional sources, deepwater oil, gas substitutes and oil (tar) sands. The data are combined to give views on the limits of global oil production with alternatives analysed to assess how energy mix and pricing levels might develop over coming years.
Ninety-nine countries now produce significant oil, have produced it in the past or will produce it in the future. However, 52, including the USA and Russia, are already well past peak (greater than 5 years) whilst another 6, including the UK and Norway, are just beginning to see declining production and 10, including Australia and China, will reach peak soon. All the remainder will see peak in the next 25 years.
Oil Supply Forecasts
Using four demand growth scenarios, 0%, 1%, 2% and 3%, the study gives for every country and region, for OPEC and the world, oil reserve and resource estimates and a 1930-2050 production profile along with a discussion of the uncertainties.The World Oil Supply Report concludes that known and yet-to-find reserves and resources may not satisfy even the present level of demand beyond 2020. The report shows that a modest 1% growth in global economic activity increases demand such that a production peak could occur as early as 2016. This will ultimately result in a sustained increase in oil prices.
Independent Analysis
Unlike many publications on oil reserves, the report is an independent analysis. The aim is to get the best possible interpretation of volumes, past, present and future, from the best data available. Every tract of land, every area of sea in every far-flung spot has been included. The report is not limited by commercial pressures or political needs. The World Oil Supply Report contains 330 pages, 143 figures and 16 tables.
The Author
Dr Michael R. Smith is an acknowledged authority on world oil supply. A geoscientist and former oil company exploration manager, he has given technical training courses on the subject for a number of organisations and universities. His latest report in this series are 'The World Gas Supply Report' and 'The World Offshore Drilling Report'.
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