Tues - Champion Hurdle – Hardy Eustace e/w
Not since 1975 has a horse lost his Champion Hurdle crown and then regained it but I think Hardy Eustace can break that baron spell by landing Tuesday’s Champion Hurdle. Many had written the dual winner off after he came third to Brave Inca last year, but at the age of 10 this gutsy hurdler is by no means a back number just yet!
He started this season with a poor sixth behind Triumph Hurdle jolly Lounaos, but since then he’s put in some top-class efforts when winning at Ascot, running Detriot City to a length and then putting up arguable the best hurdles form of the season when beating Brave Inca, Macs Joy Iktitaf and co. in what was billed as ‘the best ever hurdles race to be run in Ireland’.
He saw of his old rival Brave Inca by 3 lengths that day, and showed that if the ground does come up on the soft side he will be one of the horses in the line-up who will certainly not be bothered.
His overall Cheltenham record reads 121132 while this will be his fifth run at the festival and with form figures reading 1113 it will be a brave man that will say he can’t win a third Champion Hurdle.
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Weds - Queen Mother Champion Chase – Newmill win
This will certainly be one of the best races of the festival with last years winner Newmill my fancy to follow up. He’s showed his wellbeing last time out when destroying Macs Joy over hurdles in the mud, and while connections where contemplating a tilt at the Champion Hurdle instead of the Champion Chase in my opinion they have made the correct decision as it always adds to the race if the current champ is in the line-up.
There are a whole host of challengers with 2005 runner-up Well Chief many people’s idea of the winner after his scintillating comeback win at Newbury last month. However, although he will be a tough nut to crack there is a strong chance that we’ve seen the best of him already this season and he could just bounce.
Nickname is another to consider, as the ground has come right for him, and he looks a classy type in testing conditions, but I just wonder if the ground will actually be as testing as he needs it, and am also concerned that people have got a little carried away with his recent wins with the opposition in those races not the strongest.
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Thurs – World Hurdle – Black Jack Ketchum win
Last year’s Brit Insurance winner Black Jack Ketchum has been on the drift for the past few weeks, but despite this I still think he’s cracking value. Connections have openly said they made a mistake when he ran on heavy ground last time out at Cheltenham but I doubt if the ground will be that bad come Thursday. If you ignore his last run then there is no way he should be the price he is and as we always look for value in this game at odds of around 3/1 he certainly is that.
Plus, now with most bookmakers going Non runner, no bet there is no danger of losing your hard earned if he is pulled out due to the ground, while if he does make it to the track I’m sure he will not be as big as he is now which gives you a great chance to trade-out if you wish.
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Fri – Gold Cup – State Of Play e/w
Gold Cup horses have been falling by the wayside at a rate of knots recently and let’s hope there are no more. Kauto Star is the obvious choice and after losing Best Mate and Desert Orchid recently it would be great for racing to get another real superstar on the front pages, but for me you might just have to hold those headlines.
If the ground does end up on the soft side Kauto Star will not be too bothered having shown form on it before, but as we all know there is soft ground and there is soft ground at Cheltenham, and of course there is ‘that hill’!!
Add in Kauto Star’s odd jumping error and then at the price then to me he is definitely worth taking on. The Listener and Beef or Salmon will love the ground and could be a lot shorter on the day if the rains continue, while Exotic Dancer loves it round Cheltenham, but for me State Of Play could be the one to land the Blue Riband.
* All prices correct at time of writing.
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