Rafa Benitez’s men produced by far the result of those 1st-leg matches by beating Barcelona 2-1 in their own backyard, and that’s something the Spanish giants are used to!
After going a goal down at the Nou Camp it looked just a case of damage limitation for Liverpool and to not throw away the tie in the first game, but after a bit of luck on the stroke of half-time when Bellamy’s weak header crawled over the line thanks to a goalkeeper error the Reds had that away goal and were back in the tie in a big way.
The second 45 was like watching a different game, Barcelona seemed to be shell-shocked by that goal and after arguing and looking out of sorts Liverpool capitalized by grabbing the winner courtesy of John Arne Riise to send shockwave though Europe.
Of course the job is only half down and that could be Liverpool’s biggest problem, as to not becoming too complacent. Obviously Barca will not have liked that result and will be looking to put things right here, however Frank Rijkaard’s side had another defeat (2-1) at the hands of Sevilla at the weekend, again after scoring the first goal!
To me the task ahead of an out-of-sorts Barcelona team still looks tough. Yes they have the players to win any game, but as a team they don’t seem to be gelling and what the opposition are learning is that if you just play the players and not their reputations then they are beatable. They still have to win at Anfield, and win by 2 goals. A 1-0 win will see the tie end 2-2 with Liverpool progressing thanks to their two away goals.
Add in the fact the Liverpool are a formidable force in these big games at home and although they lost at home to rivals Man Utd at the weekend that result was probably unjust and in all this season at Anfield they have only let in 2 goals or more 4 times in 22 games, with two of those coming in the freak Carling and FA Cup games against Arsenal.
What really amazes me considering the poor form Barca are in is their price in the match odds. The bookmakers have them as their 6/4 favourites to win the match, but if you fancy this then you might as well go for the 5/2 on them to qualify and just hope they score another goal! But for me Liverpool have one of the best defences in Europe and even though Barca have a new threat for this game in Eto’o I still think the Reds can contain them with this style of a game sure to suit with them with counterattacks on the cards.
You will never see a Liverpool win at home as big as 2/1 for a long long time and based on this I think this should be snapped up, while covering the draw at 9/4 is also advised. Backing both outcomes works out at around the 4/7 mark and although short looks to me a stand-out bet.
Of the other markets the price difference of a 0-0 draw at BP 9/1 WP 11/2 is huge, and while we’d all love to see another Anfield 4-3 thriller I don’t think that will happen here.
While the other market that caught the eye was in the half-time/full-
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* All prices correct at time of writing.
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