The two league meetings this season have resulted in a 6-2 win at the Emirates and a 2-0 victory at Ewood for Arsenal, while the last ten clashes look like this – P10 Arsenal Wins 8, Draws 1, Blackburn Wins 1.
Wenger and his team will be keen to get back on the pitch after their Carling Cup defeat at the weekend, and although this is a game that they could probably do without it does give them a chance to erase last Sunday’s memories quicker than normal.
In the team news the Londoners look like they will have to rely on their young-guns once more as they will be without Thierry Henry, Tomas Rosicky, Kolo Toure, Emmanuel Adebayor and Adou Diaby who are all either injured or suspended after Sunday’s battle and red card haul.
With Walcott and Hoyte also doubts Wenger is really counting the cost of this busy period and with a massive Champions League game ahead next week this is not good news for Gunners fans.
So, he looks set to field a very similar line-up to the teams that got them to the Carling Cup Final, and like we’ve all seen they are more than capable of beating any Premiership first team. Baptista and Aliadiere look set to lead the line, while Gilberto, Ljunberg and Hleb will be the experience in midfield, with Gallas and Senderos at the back.
The bookmakers have priced Arsenal as their favourites around 5/4, with the draw 23/10 and Blackburn 12/5 and to me with Wenger’s makeshift side, and Blackburn on the back of a 3-0 home win at the weekend they might just be a tough nut to crack for the Londoners tonight.
If you look back at Blackburn’s last seven home games in all competitions you will see five wins, one draw and only one defeat. Yes, that defeat was against a 10-man Arsenal side, but they will be nowhere near as strong tonight especially with Henry missing.
Blackburn will also welcome back striker Benni McCarthy, and they will draw confidence from his goal that set up a 1-0 win at Ewood over Liverpool at Christmas. The other thing to note is that Mark Hughes’ side should be able to really give this game a go. They were unluckily dumped out of the UEFA Cup last Thursday and although they are still pushing for another European slot for next season the FA Cup remains a strong chance of glory, especially as the winners here will be at home to Man City.
With Bentley, Pedersen, Nonda and McCarthy all capable of winning a match on their own they have plenty of options, while if Tugay, in the centre of the park, is having a going day he can hurt even the best of defences.
The last thing Arsenal will want is for this game to go further than the 90 minutes, but I think that’s exactly what will happen here. The Gunners needed the added time to see off Bolton in the last round so to me the draw after 90 mins at 12/5 is the way forward.
If we think the game is going to go the distance, then it’s certainly worth looking at the extra-time and penalty markets. To win in extra-time Arsenal are 17/2 while Blackburn are 11/1 and for a spot-kick victory Arsenal are 10/1 with Blackburn 14/1. So, at decent odds at least one and possibly two of these four outcomes I think are worth covering.
Arsenal’s could very well shine though in the end and although games can often be a lottery if they reach extra-time that is often just a perception. The better team invariably wins if games go the distance, with the slightly better players and the more experienced personal - being in this situation before. So, at covering both 17/2 on an extra-time win and 10/1 to win on pens for Arsenal is worth a small interest.
The final bet is under 2.5 goals at ¾. Four of the last five times Arsenal have played at Ewood Park have gone this way and although a shortish price this looks likely again in a tight cagey game.
Recommended bets
3pts – Draw
3pts – Under 2.5 goals
1pt – Arsenal to win in extra-time
1pt – Arsenal to win on pens
* All prices correct at time of writing.
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