His last win was his trainers 100th of the season and in doing so became the first handler ever to reach that tally in his first season.
The manner of those victories has had the bookmakers running for cover for this weeks Racing Post Chase at Kempton. He’s around the 10/3 mark after the handicapper raised him a massive 24lbs after his last win, so racing off a mark of only 121 here he is in effect a whopping 21 pounds well-in here!!
However, despite this huge weight clue of to the winner of this race I’m still not sure about lumping on him at that price. The Pipe camp have only confirmed one of their other runners, Celtic Son, as a definite starter, so there is a chance he might not even line-up.
Also looking at past trends and races although Lucifer Bleu has age and current form in his favour I personally think the big factor in recent runnings is a big weight.
With Kempton being an easy flat track and in a race that should be run on decent ground the race tends to be won by a classier individual at the top end of the weights. Yes, they have to shoulder more weight around the 3mile race but they have been given that weight for a reason – because they are good enough to carry it round! And on a track that is far less demanding than others it should be a lot easier.
For me Lacdoudal at the top of the weights is the one that interests me the most at a decent each-way price.
He has the bonus of being trained by leading trainer in this race Phillip Hobbs who has won the contest three times in the last 10 years, while he also looks set to be partnered by jockey Richard Johnson who has bagged four Racing Post Chases in the last seven years.
Of course you have to be concerned about his latest run at Cheltenham, where he went off favourite and could only finish a disappointing fourth of seven runners. That run was too bad to be true in my book and although I can’t blame the track I can blame the going. It was really heavy that day and when it’s in that condition at Cheltenham it takes a more specialised horse that can win there.
Add in 8 year-olds and older have a excellent record in the race and the fact that his stable have given him plenty of time to recover from that Cheltenham run (54 days) then at around 14/1 he looks cracking each-way value in Johnson and Hobbs’ quest for more Racing Post Chase glory.
Of the rest a likely danger looks to be Alderburn. He won over this course and distance last time out over Christmas so clearly handles the track and with his handler Henry Daly winning this race back in 2001 with Young Spartacus the yard will know what it that’s to ready a horse for a big run. He looks a typical Daly improver and with a lot of positive trends also in his favour is also worth an each-way interest at around 8/1.
* All prices correct at time of writing.
ABOUT EASYODDS.COM
Easyodds.com is a comprehensive sport betting service that helps you find the BEST ODDS on offer from leading bookmakers, betting exchanges and spread betting firms and then helps you place your bet at the BestPrice.
FREE to register!
www.easyodds.com
Andrew Newton
Managing Editor
020 7691 0660
