This comprehensive report gives decision-makers a series of tools for evaluating oil and gas assets and assessing risks in property transactions. The author, a consultant who has worked in the oil and gas industry since the early 1980s, describes quantitative techniques useful for valuation and in-depth economic analysis of oil and gas projects and corporate ventures.
Among the subjects covered :
• Analyzing input and output variables and distributions.
• How probabilistic techniques incorporate and quantify risks associated with a range of future uncertainties.
• How deterministic techniques provide sensitivity analysis of economic outcomes related to a range of input assumptions.
• Using chance and decision trees with deterministic techniques.
• Applying the techniques of Monte Carlo simulation.
• Selecting distribution types to be applied to input variables in building probabilistic models.
• Quantifying downside risk as an aid to decision-making.
• Determining mean downside risk to define the efficient frontier of a portfolio.
• Assessing statistical confidence levels.
• Systematically quantifying risked reserves.
• Quantifying upside and downside risks with probabilistic valuation techniques from the perspectives of sellers, purchasers or borrowers, and lenders in transactions involving oil and gas assets.
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