Both sets of fans will be screwing that this match has needed a replay to settle this 4th round tie, and with it being live on BBC and falling on the day of love there are sure to be plenty of cancelled plans across the country.
The first tie saw the sides stalemate 1-1 at the Emirates after Kolo Toure cancelled out Kevin Nolan’s opener, but with extra-time and penalties this evening we will have a winner one way or another.
Much has been written about these sides playing each other in recent weeks due to Arsenal’s current poor record against the Trotters, especially at the Reebok.
Bolton have won the last three games in front of their home fans over Wenger’s men (3-1, 1-0 and 2-0), with their last six at home over them looking like this – P6 - Bolton 4, Draw 1, Arsenal 1.
If you add in the fact that Bolton have only tasted defeat (home and away) against the Gunners once in their last eight meetings (P8 W4 D3 L1), then backing Arsenal at around 6/4 might be a risky option.
Both teams come into the game on the back of wins with the Gunners just scrapping by Wigan 2-1 on Saturday in a drama-packed game, while Bolton won by the same scoreline in a much easier match over Fulham.
The winners here will know that a home tie against Blackburn this Saturday will see either of them as favourites to progress further, and with holders Liverpool already out and the prospect of two more Premiership sides falling away in these games the road to the new Wembley is a distinct possibility.
For Bolton, striker Kevin Davies and Abdoulaye Faye are both out, while a lot will depend on late fitness tests on their midfield trio Kevin Nolan, Gary Speed and Ivan Campo.
Arsenal on the other hand have a fairly strong squad to pick from, but will look to rest Thierry Henry which will leave Emmanuel Adebayor and Julio Baptista to lead the line. Almunia should come in to replace Lehman, while Hleb, Ljungberg and Djourou should also figure.
To me Big Sam’s side at 2/1 in the match odds with a cover on the draw at around 12/5 looks a far better option than backing Arsenal at 6/4. Bolton have lost only to Chelsea in their last eight home games with five wins and two draws including a 3-1 thumping of Arsenal amongst that run.
Don’t get me wrong Arsenal will be no pushover knowing that a win will see them in good order to go all the way in this competition. However, I’m not saying that this event isn’t important to them but if they do lose all won’t be lost as they will have a free weekend to prepare for their big Champions League game next week against PSV.
Another area of concern for many Arsenal fans and Wenger will be the Gunners leaky defence - you have to go back seven games to find their last clean sheet.
So, looking at the best betting opportunities Bolton to qualify at around 6/5 looks extremely tempting knowing that this game could easily go further than the 90 mins, while in the scoring markets ex-Arsenal striker Nicolas Anelka at around 21/10 just to score also caught the eye as he will be keen to impress against his former club and did net twice in the 3-1 win earlier this season in the league.
Finally, with a tight cagey game expected the other bet as you might know by now that I always think is cracking value in these close games is in the halftime/fulltime betting to back both HT – Arsenal FT – Draw and HT – Bolton FT – Draw at 15/1.
Recommended bets
3pts - Bolton to qualify
2pts – Anelka to score
1pt – HT – Arsenal FT – Draw
1pt - Bolton FT – Draw
* All prices correct at time of writing.
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