The business Confidence Index on the scale of 0 to 100 , Where the highest is 100 and at 50 the confidence is same as today and below 50 imply below current level performance the march 2007 index is lower then previous quarter's index which was at 88.3
Of the respondents, 69%(79% in previous Survey)are of the opinion that their performance would be better in the January-March 2007 quarter. Significantly, none of the respondents see their performance worsening in the ensuing quarter. The remaining 31% believe that they would roll over their performance of preceding quarter.
The eighth survey as assessed the industry's expectations in the forthcoming 2007 Union Budget. The key expectations, which are demanded by almost all the respondents, are reduction in excise and customs duties, invigorated Duty Entitlement Passbook Scheme rates (DEPB) and refreshed export incentives. This would pave way to achieve the US$40 billion export target by 2010. Some expect extension of Technology Up gradation Fund Scheme (TUFS) beyond March 2007. Reportedly, the extension has also found support of Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh.
Textile companies in south India seems to be a worried group. These companies had projected good business in the October-December quarter, but have apparently failed to reach their targets. For the quarter, the Business Confidence Index stood at 87.5, up from 66.7 in the preceding quarter (July-September 2006). However, the Current Status Index for the quarter October-December 2006 stand at abysmal 41.7. This low performance has apparently influenced the expectations in the insuring quarter of January to March 2007, The Business Confidence Index for the quarter stands at only 75.0, the lowest ever of YnFx surveys.
On the export Front, Europe and USA seems to have lost their charm. The Eighth Survey points towards the emergence of non-USA-European regions as major export destinations. Although Europe continues to be the major market for Indian textiles, the current survey indicates that only 16% of the respondents were targeting Europe for exports. The next preferred destination was Asia(15%) followed by Middle East(10%). Africa would be Preferred over USA as 9% of the respondents indicated the continent to be fourth largest market. South America too is preferred over USA by many as close to 8% will export their products to this region. USA, with only 7% respondents, is the least export market.
Inadequate power supply is the major cause of concern for textile companies in coming quarter. It has been a continuous source of hindrance for textile companies in the past one year. The survey of corresponding period of 2006 too had indicated power as major impediment to growth. In this survey, according to the order of responses the other impediments are demand, labour, infrastructure and finance to textiles industry.
The data for the construction of YnFx Textile Business Confidence Index is derived from the responses sent by the business firms across the country in early January 2007. The survey questionnaire comprised 8 questions which are variables used as index components. The Questionnaire is appended at the end of this report.
In answering these 8 questions, the respondents have option to choose one of the 3 alternatives:
These questions focus on the forecasting of business conditions over the period of next three months and current status compared to those in the previous quarter.
This survey assessed the experience of Indian Companies in the first year of quota-free global textile trade.
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