Reading trounced West Ham 6-0 last week and followed up with a 3-2 win over Burnley in the FA Cup third round on Tuesday night. While Steve Coppell may be slightly concerned that the Royals let a three-goal advantage turn into a narrow victory there’s no doubt the Berkshire outfit are firing on all cylinders in their first campaign in the top flight.
Reading chairman Madejski is concerned, of course, in case some of the bigger clubs come along and buy his prized possessions. If the likes of Nicky Shorey and Kevin Doyle were to fly the nest it would leave the club considerably weaker but should they hang on to their key assets a top-ten finish is a distinct possibility.
One problem for Reading, however, is Everton’s 4-1 thrashing at home to Blackburn Rovers in the FA Cup last weekend. The result came as a shock to David Moyes and it would be a surprise to see the Toffees turn in consecutive disappointing performances given the high standards Moyes sets for his players.
While Moyes will rouse his troops he will also draw succour from the fact Everton beat Reading away 2-0 in the league under a month ago. Everton were deserved winners on the day, with goals from Andrew Johnson in the 14th minute and James McFadden in the 57th minute securing three points.
That win was Everton’s first away victory since a 2-0 win over Tottenham back in August, but at home they have been far sterner opposition. Everton have won six, drawn three and lost two of 11 fixtures at Goodison Park and those two defeats came against Aston Villa (0-1) when they were high-flyers and Chelsea (2-3).
Those who like a handicap wager should note Everton have often won comfortably at home – four of their six wins have come by a two-goal margin or bigger. That suggests there might be a little value on the Asian handicap.
Reading have won three, drawn two and lost six on their travels although have failed to win in their last four meetings. Not that they are pushovers – four of those six defeats have been by a one-goal margin, which counter-balances the argument in favour of Everton on the handicap.
Nevertheless, the Toffees have enough to win here. Their home record, the fall-out from that FA Cup defeat and the fact Reading appear uncomfortable on their travels at the moment points to a home victory. A wager on Everton with a -0.75-goal start on the Asian handicap appeals – that way you would earn money should they win but secure an even more handsome profit if they triumph by more than a goal – but given that the price on ‘1 X 2’ market looks pretty generous a straight home bet is the selection.
The price on over 2.5 goals also appears big. Eleven of the relevant combined 22 league fixtures (i.e. Everton at home and Reading away in 2006-07) have had over 2.5 goals, which equates to odds of evens. That’s why a small wager on 6/5 could pay out, particularly when you consider Everton’s last three games in all competitions and Reading’s last four in all competitions have all featured over 2.5 goals.
Recommended bets:
Everton to win evens
Over 2.5 goals 6/5
* All prices correct at time of writing
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