In the league meeting on December 23 Newcastle went two goals up inside the first 10 minutes, Kieron Dyer (3rd minute) and Obafemi Martins (7th minute) giving the hosts a dream start before Danny Murphy pulled one back in the 15th minute.
Scott Parker restored Newcastle’s two-goal advantage in the 34th minute to complete a stirring first-half and secure three vital points for Glenn Roeder’s side.
It’s rare to see four goals in the first-half of a match, but early goals have been a speciality at Spurs this season. Fifteen of 28 goals at White Hart Lane have come before the break, with 10 of Tottenham’s 19 falling into that category.
It’s notable that Newcastle have scored four of their seven away goals before the break. Those stats suggest both sides are more likely to score before half-time than after half-time, which makes 9/4 about the second-half having more goals appealing.
Newcastle’s supremacy last time out will act as a confidence booster but the teams’ relative home and away form weight heavily in favour of the hosts.
Tottenham have won eight, drawn one and lost three home league fixtures, the joint third-best record in the Premiership. Although they lost 1-0 at home to Liverpool last time out they won comfortably several times, particularly against lesser opponents – 2-0 v Sheffield Utd, 3-1 v Wigan and 5-1 v Charlton.
Tottenham have failed to score at home in three of 11 fixtures although the Liverpool game was the first time they had failed to find the net since September. Tottenham have averaged 1.58 goals per game at home and will be confident of finding the net at least once.
There are no guarantees Newcastle will manage that – they have scored in just four of 11 away fixtures, although that includes three of their last five. But Glenn Roeder knows his side are prone to nervy, wasteful displays on their travels, which should hand the initiative to Spurs and means all the value in the goalscorer markets lies with the home side even though obviously prices will be bigger on the visitors.
The disparity in the sides’ scoring potential means Spurs should be backed confidently. The odds-on price on Tottenham to win will tempt some punters to look at backing the hosts on the Asian handicap instead, although the stats suggest the price of 4/5 on Spurs to win is decent value. That’s our recommendation – but if you fancy the handicap options, Tottenham with a -0.75-goal start would be the selection at an odds-against price.
Dimitar Berbatov (9/5) and Jermain Defoe (9/5) appeal in the anytime goalscorer market because they are so much more prolific at home than away – Berbatov has netted all five of his league goals at home while Defoe has scored five of his six league goals at White Hart Lane. Take your pick of the two.
This may be an open, entertaining match but Newcastle’s difficulties in scoring away from home means the price of 11/10 o over 2.5 goals looks about right. Swerve the unders/overs market this time and focus on Tottenham, first-half goals and the home side’s strikers instead.
Recommended bets:
2pt Tottenham to win 4/5
1pt More goals in the first-half 9/4
1pt Berbatov to score any time 9/5
1pt Defoe to score any time 9/5
* All prices correct at time of writing
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