Advances will be driven by the falling price of solar power, which will stem from technological innovations, growing economies of scale and a rising level of government tax incentives and rebates at both the state and federal levels. Gains will also be spurred by consumer interest in renewable energy sources and concern about the volatility of oil and other conventional energy prices and supplies. In the near term, advances will be slowed by a shortage of solar-grade silicon, a key material for the most widely used photovoltaic technology. However, this problem is likely to fade by 2010 as silicon producers complete planned expansions and as newer photovoltaic technologies that use little or no silicon become more widely used.
Thin films to lead growth in photovoltaic cells
US shipments of photovoltaic cells were dominated by crystalline silicon versions that accounted for 76 percent of volume shipments in 2005. Going forward, thin films (e.g., amorphous silicon, cadmium telluride, gallium arsenide, and copper, indium, gallium and diselenide types) will post far more dramatic growth, advancing to more than eleven times their 2005 level by 2010 as a growing number of manufacturers switch from pilot to large-scale production. Advances will be driven by the cost advantages involved in using little or no silicon. Gains will also be driven by the ability to use these materials in building integrated photovoltaic applications within roofing shingles, curtain wall and others. In 2005, the key market for photovoltaic modules (which are composed of a series of cells installed on a substrate) was power generation, accounting for 85 percent of demand. Within that category, on-grid installations accounted for the largest share of demand stemming from net metering programs implemented with state governments and local utilities, and a simpler total system which, unlike offgrid systems, does not require batteries and supplemental generators for power after dark. Other applications include manufactured goods, communications equipment, transportation equipment and water systems.
California leading market
The Pacific subregion accounted for the largest share of photovoltaic module demand in 2005, due to the large market created in California by a number of state government incentives, including 2006’s California Solar Initiative that features the Million Solar Roofs program, and weather conditions that are amenable to solar power generation.
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