Normally in a match like this the stalemate would be priced up around the 9/4 mark, but because of both teams need for this game to end all square the layers are taking a very cautious stance making the draw odds-on at around 4/5.
Despite the skinny price many punters will still be steaming into the draw, and due to this very unique betting it’s affected a lot of the associated markets. In the correct score betting 0-0 and 1-1 can be both backed around the 3/1 mark, a price that is almost half what it should normally be!! While the over 2.5 goals is a huge looking 21/10.
In the other group game CSKA Moscow need to beat Hamburg and then hope this game is not a draw in order for them to make it through. However Russian teams are generally bad travellers and although Hamburg have looked the worst team in the group, and have nothing to play for, don’t expect them to role over. As the night unfolds and word of each game spreads to the other expect the two matches to be played in a different light. If the Russians fall behind then Porto/Arsenal can then fight it out for the top spot in the knowledge that they should be safe to qualify.
If this is the case, although the draw is the obvious outcome, for me the value looks to lie with taking it on at odds-on. You can back both Arsenal and Porto around the 3/1 mark so a level stake on each of them is the same as backing an Even money winner.
The Gunners won this game 2-0 at the Emirates in a relative cantor, and they showed at the weekend that they are in good heart beating rivals Tottenham 3-0, even without captain Thierry Henry.
The last bit of advice, if following this line, is to back the 0-0 in the correct score market at around 3/1. This will act as a small cover just in case Moscow take the lead at Hamburg and word filters through to Portugal where the draw will then look ever more likely.
Recommended Bets - 4pts – Porto win
Recommended Bets - 4pts – Arsenal win
Recommended Bets - 1pt - 0-0
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